$100 Oil Could Shatter Economy –Climate Crisis AM Edition 4/16/24
There is a debate among traders about what will happen to the price of crude and whether it will hit $100. On the one hand, experts expect tensions in the Middle East to interrupt supplies from export giant Iran. Additionally, drones from Ukraine have damaged Russian oil facilities. However, the US continues to increase production and OPEC+ may also increase production to keep the market stable. The WSJ reports “The Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-aligned counterparts have dialed back production of millions of barrels of oil a day in recent years. Investors are betting that spare capacity, which the countries could yet tap in to, will effectively put a cap on oil prices—and protect Americans from an inflationary shock.” Climatecrisis247 believes that oil often trades based on anticipation and not daily supply and demand. Iran’s exports could well be interrupted by a war in the region. This alone, plus what appears to be rising demand from China, as its economy improves (Its economy grew faster in Q1 than expected) will take oil prices higher.
Cost Of Climate –Too Expensive For Many Nations
Big Oil –Cities And States Sue
One of the leading negotiators who helped create the 2015 Paris agreement says that business and political leaders are dragging their feet as they try to fulfill commits to slow climate change. Todd Stern, who served as a special envoy for climate change under Barack Obama told the Observer “They say that we need to slow down, that what is being proposed [in cuts to greenhouse gas emissions] is unrealistic. You see it a lot in the business world too. It’s really hard [to push for more urgency] because those ‘grownups’ have a lot of influence.” Climatecrisis247 believes that it is clear that fossil fuel production has not slowed and that some political leaders say it cannot until more renewables come online. Recently several oil companies CEOs have said that they will need to pump oil indefinitely because of a rising global need for energy. Additionally, recent reports show that many emerging markets do not have the capital to reach their 2050 goals.
Damage To Sharks
The journal Nature Climate Change has published a paper titled “Climate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits.” Sudden changes in temperatures in the ocean can kill marine life quickly. “The impacts on marine species from secular warming and heatwaves are well demonstrated; however, the impacts of extreme cold events are poorly understood. Here we link the death of organisms from 81 species to an intense cold upwelling event in the Agulhas Current, and show trends of increasing frequency and intensification of upwelling in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current.” Sharp increases in cold water appear to have killed sharks, among other species based on an examination of data from 1981 to 2022. Climatecrisis247 believes that as science examines climate change, there is a growing body of evidence that many of the effects remain unknown. Once uncovered, these are almost always negative.
Coral Damage
WWF reports that ocean warming is causing a climate catastrophe for coral. “The global coral bleaching event means wide swathes of tropical reefs in the three largest ocean basins – the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian – are experiencing extreme stress. Sufficiently severe or prolonged stress can cause coral mortality.” Climatecrisis247 believes that this is one among several reports on coral mortality based on high ocean temperature. Many of these have focused on areas off Australia and Florida. Because the odds that the oceans will cool are low, the problem will only get worse.
