Which Cities Will Become Deserts in Next 50 Years?

https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/28210216/Projected-changes-in-biome-classification-1979-2013-baseline-to-2061-2080-150x150.png

The Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.1°F per decade since 1850, or about 2°F in total. As climate change drives global temperatures higher, it is also causing major shifts in the world’s ecosystems, forcing biomes to expand, contract, or disappear altogether.

In a recent study published in the journal PeerJ, researchers from the Open Earth Monitor Cyberinfrastructure project used high resolution data and machine learning to map how natural vegetation zones – or biomes – will shift by 2080 under different climate scenarios. Projections show that dozens of major cities will undergo full biome shifts within the next half-century, reshaping the land, vegetation, and habitability of huge pockets of the U.S. population.

The central U.S. will become hotter and drier, while wet East Coast forests will give way to drier, more drought-tolerant flora. Meanwhile, the deserts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern California will expand into Texas and Colorado. A closer look at the data reveals the cities forecast to undergo the biggest biome shifts by 2080.

To determine the U.S. cities that won’t look the same in 50 years, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed spatial data from the April 2023 paper Current and future global distribution of potential biomes under climate change scenarios, published in PeerJ. Cities whose dominant biome type is forecast to change from the current 1973-2013 baseline to the 2061-2080 forecast period were ranked based on the degree of change. Forecast changes to biome landscape classification are based on RCP 8.5 scenario, or high emissions, and correspond to the BIOME 6000 classification scheme. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered.

25. Minneapolis, MN

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 426,877

24. Reno, NV

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
Total population: 265,196

23. Fresno, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 541,528

22. Aurora, CO

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 387,349

21. Denver, CO

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 710,800

19. Fort Worth, TX

*Photo by J. Amill Santiago on Unsplash*

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 924,663

19. Anchorage, AK

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Low and high shrub tundra
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
Total population: 290,674

18. Louisville, KY

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 629,176

17. Sacramento, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 523,600

16. San Antonio, TX

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Steppe
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 1,445,662

15. Bakersfield, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
Total population: 404,321

14. Los Angeles, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 3,881,041

13. Miami, FL

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 443,665

12. Cleveland, OH

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Cool mixed forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Total population: 370,365

11. Irvine, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 304,527

10. Nashville, TN

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 684,103

9. Virginia Beach, VA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 457,900

8. Anaheim, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 347,111

7. Corpus Christi, TX

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 317,804

6. Buffalo, NY

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Cool mixed forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Total population: 276,688

5. Boston, MA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Cool mixed forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
Total population: 665,945

4. Santa Ana, CA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 311,379

3. Long Beach, CA

*Photo by Linda Pomerantz Zhang on Unsplash*

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Xerophytic woods/scrub
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
Total population: 462,293

2. Portland, OR

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 646,101

1. Seattle, WA

Current biome classification, 1979-2013: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
Future biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
Total population: 734,603

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