Extreme Weather Threatens Housing Markets in Coastal Texas

By Sam Stebbins  •  February 12, 2026
a row of multi - colored houses on a beach
Photo by Josh Sorenson on Unsplash

In recent years, Texas has been one of the fastest growing states in the country. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of people living in Texas climbed by more than 391,000 between mid-2024 and mid-2025 – the largest numeric increase of any state over that period. In any state or local market, an influx of new residents fuels housing demand growth, and rising demand typically drives up home values. But in Texas, home prices are trending downward. 

Housing market data from Realtor.com shows that the median list price for a single-family home in Texas was $350,000 in December 2025, 2.6% less than it was one year earlier. For comparison, the national median list price fell by only 0.6% over the same period. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Texas has nearly 3,400 miles of coastline, and the recent decline in home prices across the state has been driven, in part, by collapsing markets along the Gulf coast. 

Sea level rise is one of the most harmful and predictable consequences of climate change. Antarctica and Greenland, the two largest ice sheets in the world, have lost a combined average of 226 billion metric tons of ice per year since the 1970s, according to the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus. As glaciers melt, the volume of water in the world’s oceans increases – and even if global commitments to mitigate the worst effects of climate change are met, sea levels are projected to rise measurably in the next 25 years.

This trend poses a clear threat to parts of coastal Texas, where water levels are projected to climb by three feet or more by the end of the century. Even as early as 2050, tens of thousands of Texans are projected to be at risk of regular, severe flooding. In many of the most exposed communities along the Texas Gulf, home prices are falling rapidly. 

Using data from Climate Central and Realtor.com, Climate Crisis 247 identified the high flood-risk Texas housing markets where home values are cratering. We reviewed the change in median list prices between December 2024 and December 2025 for 27 counties along Texas’ Gulf coast, and ranked those counties on the number of residents expected to face risk of severe flooding by the year 2050. Only counties with declining home values were considered. Supplemental data on future flooding and sea-level rise projections are from Climate Central. 

Among the 10 counties on this list, median list prices have fallen by as much as 7.2% in the last year. Collectively, these counties are home to nearly 6.1 million people, and by 2050, more than 73,400 of them are projected to be at risk of severe flooding. 

a large body of water next to a city
Photo by Richard R on Unsplash

10. San Patricio County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 316 people (0.5% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.5 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $279,925 (-3.0% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 421 homes (+26.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 87 days (+0.3% from Dec. 2024)

9. Calhoun County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 570 people (2.8% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.9 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.5 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $338,000 (-2.9% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 204 homes (+36.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 98 days (-29.1% from Dec. 2024)

8. Chambers County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 663 people (1.4% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $369,995 (-4.7% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 287 homes (+25.9% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 64 days (+8.5% from Dec. 2024)

7. Matagorda County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 1,122 people (3.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 3.2 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.8 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $292,450 (-7.2% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 273 homes (+40.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 113 days (+11.9% from Dec. 2024)

6. Aransas County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 1,840 people (7.7% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.6 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $405,250 (-4.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 550 homes (+8.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 135 days (+22.0% from Dec. 2024)

5. Nueces County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 2,420 people (0.7% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.4 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.8 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $337,500 (-0.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 2,296 homes (+12.9% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 99 days (+14.5% from Dec. 2024)

4. Brazoria County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 3,233 people (0.9% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 3.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $359,473 (-3.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 1,792 homes (+17.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 70 days (+15.8% from Dec. 2024)

3. Harris County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 4,119 people (0.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 3.1 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $328,925 (-3.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 16,854 homes (+16.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 61 days (+8.9% from Dec. 2024)

2. Orange County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 14,429 people (17.0% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.8 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $211,200 (-3.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 409 homes (-7.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 88 days (+9.0% from Dec. 2024)

1. Galveston County, Texas

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 44,735 people (12.8% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 3.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 3.5 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $399,000 (-0.7% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 3,047 homes (+4.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 87 days (+17.7% from Dec. 2024)

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