American Cities Where Summer Temperatures Are Projected to Surge

The thermometer shows a very hot temperature.

https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/qs5hr1dg7h4-150x150.jpg

The impact of heat-trapping air pollution – such as carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases – has been on full display in recent years, as each of the 10 hottest years on record globally were reported in the last decade. In many parts of the United States, one of the most dangerous and tangible developments has been surging summer temperatures. A recent analysis of 242 American cities, conducted by the independent, non-profit research organization Climate Central, found that 97% of those places now have hotter summers than they did in 1970 – with temperatures up by an average of 2.6°F.

The dangers posed by these warming trends are not theoretical. Not only do higher temperatures raise the likelihood and potential severity of natural disasters, including hurricanes, tornadoes, and flooding, but extreme heat by itself also poses very real risks. Excessive heat resulted in 2,325 fatalities nationwide in 2023, making it the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. Certain populations, including children, older adults, and pregnant women are at heightened risk.

If greenhouse gas emissions are not meaningfully reduced in the near future, cities and towns across the United States are expected to face increasingly hot summers. In many of these places, summer temperatures are projected to match what is now normal in places hundreds of miles to the south within the next few decades.

Using data compiled by Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified the U.S. cities where summer temperatures are expected to surge. We reviewed climate projections for nearly 250 American cities and ranked them on the expected change in maximum summer temperatures by the year 2100. Temperature changes are based on the differences in high temperatures reported in the summer of 2020 to the estimated highs in the summer of 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Supplemental data on projected changes by summer 2060, and cities where temperatures are currently in line with future projections, are also from Climate Central. Only the 19 U.S. cities where high summer temperatures are projected to rise by at least 10°F by the end of the century were considered in this story.

19. Waterloo, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.0°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Waterloo in 2100: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Waterloo in 2060: Louisville, Kentucky

18. Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.0°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Cedar Rapids in 2100: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.7°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Cedar Rapids in 2060: Independence, Missouri

17. Rapid City, South Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Rapid City in 2100: Abilene, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.3°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Rapid City in 2060: West Jordan, Utah

16. Des Moines, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Des Moines in 2100: Irving, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Des Moines in 2060: Clarksville, Tennessee

15. Ottumwa, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Ottumwa in 2100: Austin, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.5°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Ottumwa in 2060: Joplin, Missouri

14. St Joseph, Missouri

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.3°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to St Joseph in 2100: Reynosa, Mexico
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.8°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to St Joseph in 2060: Tulsa, Oklahoma

13. Lincoln Area, Nebraska

*Photo by American Public Power Association on Unsplash*

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.3°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Lincoln Area in 2100: Edinburg, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.8°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Lincoln Area in 2060: Norman, Oklahoma

12. Mason City, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mason City in 2100: Amarillo, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.3°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mason City in 2060: Denver, Colorado

11. Omaha, Nebraska

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Omaha in 2100: Ciudad Río Bravo, Mexico
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.9°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Omaha in 2060: Pearland, Texas

10. Mankato, Minnesota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.5°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mankato in 2100: Amarillo, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mankato in 2060: Denver, Colorado

9. Minneapolis • St. Paul, Minnesota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.5°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Minneapolis • St. Paul in 2100: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.5°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Minneapolis • St. Paul in 2060: Omaha, Nebraska

8. Panama City, Florida

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.6°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Panama City in 2100: Ciudad Río Bravo, Mexico
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +2.5°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Panama City in 2060: Metairie, Louisiana

7. Glendive, Montana

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.7°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Glendive in 2100: Denton, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Glendive in 2060: Lincoln, Nebraska

6. Sioux City, Iowa

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.7°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Sioux City in 2100: Abilene, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.6°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Sioux City in 2060: Birmingham, Alabama

5. Sioux Falls, South Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.8°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Sioux Falls in 2100: McKinney, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +5.0°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Sioux Falls in 2060: Lincoln, Nebraska

4. Minot, North Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.9°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Minot in 2100: Wichita, Kansas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.2°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Minot in 2060: Davenport, Iowa

3. Fargo, North Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.9°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Fargo in 2100: Broken Arrow, Oklahoma
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +4.4°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Fargo in 2060: Springfield, Illinois

2. Bismarck, North Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +10.9°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Bismarck in 2100: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +5.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Bismarck in 2060: Provo, Utah

1. Mitchell, South Dakota

Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2100: +11.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mitchell in 2100: Wichita Falls, Texas
Projected increase in peak summer temperatures by 2060: +5.1°F
City where current summer temperatures are comparable to Mitchell in 2060: Memphis, Tennessee