Extreme Hail Forecast for the South and Midwest; Here’s the Cities That Could Get Hit the Hardest

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This past weekend, a deadly storm system swept across parts of the Mississippi Valley, causing power outages for thousands of homes and killing at least three people in Oklahoma. As the storms move east, forecasters are predicting tornado risk and hail the size of baseballs for large swaths of the South and Midwest.

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Nationwide, 89 counties have at least a 15% chance of hail over the next 48 hours, representing 2.2 million Americans. There are 22 counties with at least a 5% chance of extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – representing about 600,000 U.S. residents. While the relationship between rising temperatures and hail is complex, climate change is linked to worsening hail storms, with larger hailstones and more costly property damage. A closer look at the data reveals the cities that could get hammered by hail this week.

To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from April 22 to April 23, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.