From Kansas City to Minneapolis, These Cities Are Directly in the Path of a Major Tornado System

By Evan Comen • April 29, 2025

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A dangerous stretch of severe weather is forecast to sweep across the central United States this week, with conditions ripe for tornadoes across portions of the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley. Meteorologists at the NOAA's Storm Prediction Center warn that multiple rounds of severe storms could bring tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail over the next 48 hours.

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There is a 15% chance of tornado activity in over 40 major cities, representing over three million Americans. More than 70 cities have a 10% chance of a significant tornado – rated EF2 or greater on the Enhanced Fujita Scale – with major population hubs like Minneapolis and St. Paul bearing the greatest convective storm risk. A closer look at the data reveals the cities that could experience damaging tornadoes this week.

To determine the cities directly in the path of a tornado outbreak this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on tornado probability from the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a tornado or significant tornado – ranked EF2 or higher – within 25 miles of their border from April 28 to April 29, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Only cities with at least 75,000 residents were included. Supplemental data on real estate value and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau.

20. Kansas City, MO

Photo by Samuel Myles on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 0.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 42 storms
Value of all homes: $29.2 billion
Population: 505,958

19. Omaha, NE

Photo by Andrew Seaman on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 0.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 23 storms
Value of all homes: $28.8 billion
Population: 489,201

18. Independence, MO

Photo by Raychel Sanner on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 0.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 42 storms
Value of all homes: $5.4 billion
Population: 122,218

17. Kansas City, KS

Photo by Brett Sayles on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 0.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 9 storms
Value of all homes: $5.8 billion
Population: 155,438

16. Milwaukee, WI

Photo by Coasted Media on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 0.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 6.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 20 storms
Value of all homes: $17.8 billion
Population: 573,299

15. Duluth, MN

Photo by Andrew Ling on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 1.7%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.8%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 38 storms
Value of all homes: $5.6 billion
Population: 86,772

14. Rockford, IL

Photo by Bruno Coimbra on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 6.9%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 7.2%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 19 storms
Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
Population: 148,173

13. Green Bay, WI

Photo by Кирилл Loveloonies on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 29 storms
Value of all homes: $5.0 billion
Population: 106,846

12. Appleton, WI

Photo by Niko Vassios on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 35 storms
Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
Population: 75,133

11. Davenport, IA

Photo by Clay LeConey on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 54 storms
Value of all homes: $4.9 billion
Population: 101,448

10. Madison, WI

Photo by Alek Olson on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 71 storms
Value of all homes: $20.5 billion
Population: 268,516

9. Cedar Rapids, IA

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 48 storms
Value of all homes: $8.1 billion
Population: 136,929

8. Des Moines, IA

Photo by Niko Vassios on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 60 storms
Value of all homes: $10.5 billion
Population: 213,164

7. Woodbury, MN

Photo by Adriaan Greyling on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 23 storms
Value of all homes: $9.6 billion
Population: 75,549

6. Plymouth, MN

Photo by Winston Tjia on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 35 storms
Value of all homes: $11.5 billion
Population: 79,918

5. Brooklyn Park, MN

Photo by Bl∡ke on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 35 storms
Value of all homes: $6.3 billion
Population: 84,951

4. Bloomington, MN

Photo by Chris Flaten on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 35 storms
Value of all homes: $8.8 billion
Population: 89,244

3. Rochester, MN

Photo by Tom Fisk on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 34 storms
Value of all homes: $10.2 billion
Population: 120,848

2. St. Paul, MN

Photo by Urvish Oza on Unsplash

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 10 storms
Value of all homes: $21.1 billion
Population: 308,806

1. Minneapolis, MN

Photo by Josh Hild on Pexels

Probability of significant tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 15.0%
No. tornadoes, 1950-2023: 35 storms
Value of all homes: $35.5 billion
Population: 426,877

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