Millions of Americans Could See ‘Egg-Sized’ Hail This Weekend: These Are the Cities That Could Get Hit the Hardest
https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Probability-of-hail-May-16-to-May-18-150x150.pngA powerful spring storm is set to impact parts of the central U.S. over the next two days, bringing with it the threat of large, damaging hail. Forecasters are warning of hailstones exceeding two inches in diameter, with some local meteorologists describing the potential "egg-sized" or "baseball-sized" stones as turbulent air clashes with incoming storm fronts. This intense weather system poses risks to homes, vehicles, and crops across multiple states.
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There are 15 cities with populations of at least 100,000 that face at least a 30% chance of hail over the next two days, representing more than five million Americans. More than 25 major cities face at least a 10% chance of significant hail – storms with hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – that could cause significant damage to roofs, windows, vehicles, and other property. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the biggest hail threat this week.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or significant hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from May 16 to May 18, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 100,000 residents were considered.
25. Minneapolis, MN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 101 storms
- Value of all homes: $35.5 billion
- Population: 426,877
24. Memphis, TN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 166 storms
- Value of all homes: $24.8 billion
- Population: 630,027
23. Dayton, OH
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 32 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Population: 137,305
22. Cincinnati, OH
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 54 storms
- Value of all homes: $15.0 billion
- Population: 308,870
21. Indianapolis, IN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 303 storms
- Value of all homes: $45.3 billion
- Population: 882,006
20. Springfield, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 74 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.9 billion
- Population: 114,214
19. Little Rock, AR
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 248 storms
- Value of all homes: $13.0 billion
- Population: 202,218
18. Louisville, KY
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 15.1%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 73 storms
- Value of all homes: $41.8 billion
- Population: 629,176
17. St. Paul, MN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 21.4%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 90 storms
- Value of all homes: $21.1 billion
- Population: 308,806
16. Clarksville, TN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 22.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 46 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.2 billion
- Population: 167,882
15. Madison, WI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 104 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.5 billion
- Population: 268,516
14. Milwaukee, WI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 95 storms
- Value of all homes: $17.8 billion
- Population: 573,299
13. Green Bay, WI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 26 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.0 billion
- Population: 106,846
12. Lansing, MI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 20 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 112,986
11. Grand Rapids, MI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 26 storms
- Value of all homes: $9.4 billion
- Population: 198,096
10. Rockford, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 91 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 148,173
9. Aurora, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 35 storms
- Value of all homes: $11.1 billion
- Population: 181,405
8. Elgin, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 28 storms
- Value of all homes: $7.3 billion
- Population: 114,190
7. Naperville, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 42 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.7 billion
- Population: 149,089
6. Chicago, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 140 storms
- Value of all homes: $213.9 billion
- Population: 2,721,914
5. Joliet, IL
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 47 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.9 billion
- Population: 150,221
4. South Bend, IN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 65 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 103,084
3. Fort Wayne, IN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 135 storms
- Value of all homes: $11.9 billion
- Population: 264,514
2. St. Louis, MO
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 84 storms
- Value of all homes: $14.5 billion
- Population: 298,018
1. Evansville, IN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 62 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.3 billion
- Population: 116,906
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