States Where the Government is Underestimating Flood Risk
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07212722/gxp5a5fewjq-150x150.jpgIn the wake of the Central Texas floods over the July 4th weekend, the number of confirmed fatalities has climbed to 120 – and with 170 individuals still missing, the official death toll may more than double in the coming days. As recovery efforts continue and the rebuilding process begins, state and federal government agencies are being scrutinized for a range of perceived failures in areas that could have prevented, or greatly reduced, the tragic loss of life.
These agencies include the National Weather Service, which has been accused of underestimating the amount of rain expected in the flooded areas, as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, which was largely absent from the first three days of rescue efforts. The delay was reportedly due to spending restrictions, newly implemented under the Trump administration, that require Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to personally sign off on any contract or grant with costs exceeding $100,000.
Which agencies, if any, will ultimately be held accountable for any preventable loss of life remains unclear, but a report from the First Street Foundation, a non-profit climate-risk research group, suggests that FEMA may have been underestimating flood-risk in many parts of the country long before Trump took office. The report, which incorporates FEMA projections, as well as data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the World Climate Research Programme, provides estimates for the number of properties in a given area at substantial flood-risk – or those properties that face a 1% chance of flooding in a given year, and a more than 26% chance of flooding at least once every 30 years.
The report estimates that there may be as many as 14.6 million properties at substantial flood-risk nationwide. This estimate exceeds FEMA’s official flood-risk assessment by approximately 5.9 million properties. In certain states, the number of properties determined by First Street to be at substantial flood-risk is more than double the estimates provided by FEMA.
Using data from the First Street Foundation’s 2020 report, “The First National Flood Risk Assessment,” Climate Crisis 247 identified the states where the government is underestimating exposure to flooding. States are ranked by the relative difference between FEMA and First Street estimates on the number of properties at substantial flood risk. Only states where the properties at substantial flood-risk, as identified by First Street, are more than double the number of properties identified by FEMA, were included in this analysis.
23. Virginia
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.1x more than FEMA estimates (+181,934 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 344,400 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 162,466 properties
22. Illinois
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.2x more than FEMA estimates (+246,000 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 451,700 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 205,700 properties
21. California
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.2x more than FEMA estimates (+595,500 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 1,090,000 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 494,500 properties
20. Georgia
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.2x more than FEMA estimates (+190,600 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 347,700 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 157,100 properties
19. New Hampshire
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.2x more than FEMA estimates (+35,900 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 64,900 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 29,000 properties
18. Ohio
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.2x more than FEMA estimates (+273,100 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 493,000 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 219,900 properties
17. Maryland
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.3x more than FEMA estimates (+75,000 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 133,700 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 58,700 properties
16. Kentucky
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.3x more than FEMA estimates (+130,200 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 227,000 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 96,800 properties
15. West Virginia
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.4x more than FEMA estimates (+192,400 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 326,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 134,200 properties
14. South Dakota
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.5x more than FEMA estimates (+37,600 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 62,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 24,900 properties
13. Michigan
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.5x more than FEMA estimates (+191,500 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 315,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 124,100 properties
12. New York
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.6x more than FEMA estimates (+376,500 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 615,500 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 239,000 properties
11. Oregon
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.7x more than FEMA estimates (+170,100 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 268,000 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 97,900 properties
10. Minnesota
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.8x more than FEMA estimates (+138,764 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 215,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 76,836 properties
9. Pennsylvania
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 2.9x more than FEMA estimates (+370,200 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 564,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 194,400 properties
8. Washington
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 3.0x more than FEMA estimates (+241,100 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 362,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 121,500 properties
7. Colorado
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 3.0x more than FEMA estimates (+87,900 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 131,200 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 43,300 properties
6. Vermont
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 3.1x more than FEMA estimates (+26,700 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 39,700 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 13,000 properties
5. Tennessee
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 3.8x more than FEMA estimates (+281,800 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 383,200 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 101,400 properties
4. Idaho
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 3.9x more than FEMA estimates (+110,400 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 148,400 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 38,000 properties
3. Montana
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 4.1x more than FEMA estimates (+92,700 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 122,600 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 29,800 properties
2. Wyoming
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 4.2x more than FEMA estimates (+26,900 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 35,200 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 8,300 properties
1. Utah
- Properties at substantial flood risk relative to official estimates: 5.2x more than FEMA estimates (+91,300 additional properties)
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; First Street Foundation estimate: 113,100 properties
- Number of properties at substantial flood risk; FEMA estimate: 21,800 properties
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