The Wildfires With the Greatest Chance of Spreading Right Now

By Evan Comen • September 26, 2025

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There are dozens of active wildfires burning across the country, threatening forests and critical infrastructure and spreading dangerous smoke to populated areas. While many of the largest fires are relatively contained, there are a handful burning in settings where conditions are ripe for their expansion, fueled by dry conditions, high winds, and flammable vegetation.

The United States Geological Survey models real-time risk of wildfire spread across the country, considering inputs like vegetation type, fuel moisture, topography, wind speed, and weather forecasts. While the USGS rates the chance of an existing one-acre fire spreading to 500+ acres below 1% in a majority of the country, there are a dozen fires with at least a 10% chance of growing into a large fire. A closer look at the data reveals the wildfires with the greatest chance of spreading right now.

To determine the wildfires with the greatest chance of spreading, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on current wildfire perimeters from the National Interagency Fire Center and wildfire spread probability rasters from the USGS. Fires were ranked based on the average probability of spread across their perimeters as of September 25, 2025. Only fires that are less than 80% contained were considered.

15. Wildcat Fire (Yakima County, WA)

Photo by Tom Fisk on Pexels

Probability wildfire will spread: 9.6%
Current wildfire size: 9,411 acres (7.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 25, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

14. Mire Fire (Clearwater County, ID)

Photo by Clay Elliot on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 9.6%
Current wildfire size: 1,388 acres (70.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 13, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

13. Cutaway Fire (Granite County, MT)

Photo by Maddy Weiss on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 10.0%
Current wildfire size: 64 acres (15.0% contained)
Date discovered: September 6, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

12. Parachute Lake Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Ales Krivec on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 10.2%
Current wildfire size: 75 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 19, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

11. Schwar Creek Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Darya Tryfanava on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 10.3%
Current wildfire size: 535 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 20, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

10. Spread Creek Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Joanne Francis on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 11.1%
Current wildfire size: 155 acres (50.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 23, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

9. Waldo Bar Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Mike Newbry on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 11.3%
Current wildfire size: 121 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 23, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

8. Good Friday Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Judy Beth Morris on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 11.4%
Current wildfire size: 616 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 15, 2025
Primary fuel: Brush

7. Lonely Mountain Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Lukas on Pexels

Probability wildfire will spread: 11.7%
Current wildfire size: 629 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 19, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

6. East Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels

Probability wildfire will spread: 11.9%
Current wildfire size: 2,231 acres (50.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 20, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

5. Windy Rock Fire (Powell County, MT)

Photo by Gabrielle Wright on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 12.2%
Current wildfire size: 6,040 acres (68.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 14, 2025
Primary fuel: Short grass

4. Wapiti Creek Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Clark Wilson on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 13.3%
Current wildfire size: 730 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 1, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

3. Cloudrest Fire (Madison County, MT)

Photo by Isaac Mitchell on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 13.5%
Current wildfire size: 3,174 acres (54.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 14, 2025
Primary fuel: Timber

2. Island Creek Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by elliott on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 13.8%
Current wildfire size: 14,943 acres (5.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 1, 2025
Primary fuel: Closed timber litter

1. Rhoda Creek Fire (Idaho County, ID)

Photo by Jannis Edelmann on Unsplash

Probability wildfire will spread: 13.9%
Current wildfire size: 2,613 acres (0.0% contained)
Date discovered: August 20, 2025
Primary fuel: Medium logging slash

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