by 2040, these Cities Will Be Plagued with Drought

As the planet warms, drought is becoming more common. According to analysis from the World Resources Institute, when global temperatures reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines, the average number of days spent in drought in major cities around the world will rise from 15.98 days per year to 17.33 days per year.

The scientific community generally agrees the Earth will reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines by 2040. A warming planet will affect some cities more than others, with more than two dozen cities forecast to spend more than half the year in drought by 2040. A closer look at the data reveals the cities that will spend the most time in drought by 2040.

To determine the cities that will spend the most time in drought by 2040, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on climate hazards and global warming scenarios from the World Resources Institute. The world’s 996 most populous cities were ranked based on the projected number of days cities will spend with a Standardized Precipitation Index score below -1 – a common measure of drought – in a global warming scenario of 1.5°C above pre-industrial baseline, a threshold most expert models project the world will cross by 2040. Baselines used to compare future annual drought days to historical normals are based on Standardized Precipitation Index data for 1995 through 2014. Supplemental data on the projected number of days during which high temperatures will reach 95°F and when high temperatures will exceed the local 95th percentile for daily high temperature – a measure of heat wave frequency – is also from the WRI.

5. Concepción, Chile

Concepción, a major city in south-central Chile, is projected to spend 231 days in drought each year by 2040, leaving the region dry for most of the year. The city lies within the heart of Chile’s long-running “megadrought,” driven by shifting Pacific weather patterns, reduced mountain snowpack, and persistent high-pressure systems that block rainfall. Though it is not expected to experience temperatures above 95°F, Concepción will still see 91 heat-wave days, compounding water stress.

4. Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Ciudad Juárez, a major desert border city across from El Paso, is projected to face 231 drought days per year by 2040, an increase of 13 days over historical norms. Located in the Chihuahuan Desert, the city already receives limited rainfall, and warming temperatures are expected to intensify evaporation and further dry out the region. By 2040, Ciudad Juárez may see 68 days above 95°F and 51 heat-wave days, adding to the strain on local water supplies.

3. Bakersfield, California, United States

Bakersfield is expected to spend 235 days per year in drought by 2040, leaving the city dry for nearly two-thirds of the year. Situated in California’s southern Central Valley, the area relies heavily on winter precipitation and Sierra Nevada snowmelt – both of which are becoming less reliable as the climate warms. The city is projected to endure 71 days above 95°F and 37 heat-wave days, intensifying water scarcity and soil dryness.

2. Fresno, California, United States

Fresno is projected to see 240 drought days annually by 2040, making prolonged dryness a defining feature of life in the region. Like much of the Central Valley, Fresno depends on increasingly erratic rainfall and shrinking snowpack, leaving the area highly vulnerable to extended dry spells. By 2040, the city will likely experience 70 days above 95°F and 42 heat-wave days, further stressing agricultural and municipal water systems.

1. Yazd, Iran

Yazd is expected to face 241 days of drought each year by 2040, the longest stretch among the world’s largest cities and a 31-day increase from its historical average. Located in the deserts of central Iran, the city has a millennia-long history of extreme aridity, and climate change is projected to push drought conditions even further. Yazd may see 72 days above 95°F and 48 heat-wave days by 2040, amplifying already severe water-supply pressures.