The Trump Effect: Why COP29 won't be able to Stop the 'Drill, Baby, Drill' gang

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COP29, the annual get-together organized by the United Nations to try to agree on climate goals and actions, has just kicked off in oil-rich Azerbaijan. And although American participation is under the auspices of the current Biden administration, the likely actions of President-Elect Donald Trump hang over the talks like a massive cloud.

The confab already faced considerable challenges. Many nations in attendance are upset because the host country counts on oil and gas for 90% of its export dollars. And questions have been raised about the presence of oil companies that have shown no true plans to cut production or, despite assurances, make massive investments to advance green technologies.

But it is Trump who overshadows everything. For instance, the meeting’s purpose has also been undermined by the future U.S. administration’s plans to once again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, something it did after his election in 2016.

And then there is the slogan of the new administration to let oil companies “drill baby, drill,” even on federal land. This would be a major setback given that the U.S. is the world’s second largest polluter based on greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, other oil-rich nations are pumping as much of the black stuff as they have in the past, if not more. As U.S. Energy Information Agency figure show, “In 2023, global oil production averaged 81,804,000 barrels per day, or roughly 4.5 billion metric tons. This was a 1% increase from 2022 and was in line with the average from 2010–2019. Coal production was at an all-time high in 2023.”

Although the figure is hard to tie down, the cost to stop or reverse global warming is $1 trillion annually between now and 2050. The figure is not even close to that now, and COP29 will not change that.