Days After Near-Record Hailstones Fall in Texas, Another Round of Severe Weather Is Targeting These Cities

By Evan Comen • May 29, 2025

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Just days after Memorial Day storms battered parts of Texas with DVD-sized hailstones, another round of severe weather is threatening to bring large, damaging hail and isolated tornadoes to the central U.S. this week. Forecasters warn that a potent spring storm system will sweep across the southern Plains, with central Texas once again in the bullseye for “gorilla hail” – forecaster slang for hailstones larger than two inches in diameter.

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Nationwide, 96 counties have at least a 15% chance of hail in the next 72 hours, representing 2.5 million Americans. Many of the same counties also have an elevated possibility of tornadoes, as well as severe thunderstorms. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the greatest hail threat this week.

To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from May 29 to May 31, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 40,000 residents were considered.

20. New Braunfels, TX

Photo by Victor Martinez on Pexels

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 1.8%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 50 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 4 storms
Population: 92,993

19. Stillwater, OK

Photo by Gemma C on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 86 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 2 storms
Population: 48,644

18. Wichita, KS

Photo by American Jael on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 556 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 23 storms
Population: 395,951

17. San Marcos, TX

Photo by Roberto Gonzalez on Pexels

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 52 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 6 storms
Population: 67,143

16. College Station, TX

Photo by Dre Erwin on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 53 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 7 storms
Population: 120,451

15. Kyle, TX

Photo by Ray Shrewsberry on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 11.7%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 9 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 5 storms
Population: 48,484

14. Bryan, TX

Photo by Joe Forget on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 12.3%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 45 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 10 storms
Population: 84,820

13. Amarillo, TX

Photo by Andy Staver on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 12.8%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 1.7%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 694 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 18 storms
Population: 200,360

12. San Angelo, TX

Photo by Raychel Sanner on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 13.9%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 239 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 9 storms
Population: 99,422

11. Enid, OK

Photo by Lillian Fisher on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 143 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 13 storms
Population: 50,961

10. Temple, TX

Photo by Sinan on Pexels

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 65 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 11 storms
Population: 83,473

9. Waco, TX

Photo by Daniel on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 105 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 13 storms
Population: 140,545

8. Georgetown, TX

Photo by David Banning on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 65 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 6 storms
Population: 71,788

7. Killeen, TX

Photo by Caden Van Cleave on Pexels

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 87 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 9 storms
Population: 153,708

6. Cedar Park, TX

Photo by Luis Rodriguez on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 32 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 0 storms
Population: 76,344

5. Leander, TX

Photo by DerTobiSturmjagd on Pixabay

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 41 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 5 storms
Population: 62,491

4. Round Rock, TX

Photo by ELG21 on Pixabay

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 4 storms
Population: 120,465

3. Abilene, TX

Photo by Jessie Hall on Pexels

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 245 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 10 storms
Population: 126,356

2. Pflugerville, TX

Photo by Luis Rodriguez on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 24 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 3 storms
Population: 64,528

1. Austin, TX

Photo by Tomek Baginski on Unsplash

Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
No. hail events, 1950-2024: 320 storms
No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 32 storms
Population: 958,202

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