Twin Hailstorms Threaten to Disrupt Independence Day Plans in Northeast, Plains States
https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Probability-of-hail-July-4th-to-July-6th-150x150.pngThis weekend, two sudden summer storms are forecast to pummel parts of the northern Plains and Northeast with damaging hail, putting a damper on Fourth of July festivities. In some counties, hailstones more than two inches in diameter have the capacity to smash windows, dent cars, and cause widespread property damage.
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There are 17 counties with a 15% chance of hail, representing over 180,000 Americans. In 10 counties, the chance of extreme hail – more than two inches in diameter – is at least 10%, representing roughly 120,000 Americans. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest chance of hail this weekend.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this weekend Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from July 4 to July 6, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 25,000 residents were considered.
15. Freeport, NY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 1 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 44,210
14. Uniondale, NY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 1 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.2 billion
- Population: 33,192
13. Philadelphia, PA
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 43 storms
- Value of all homes: $94.8 billion
- Population: 1,593,208
12. Davenport, IA
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 95 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.9 billion
- Population: 101,448
11. Rock Island, IL
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 32 storms
- Value of all homes: $1.3 billion
- Population: 37,264
10. Levittown, NY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 0 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.1 billion
- Population: 50,804
9. East Meadow, NY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 0 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.0 billion
- Population: 36,856
8. Moline, IL
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 26 storms
- Value of all homes: $2.0 billion
- Population: 42,452
7. Bettendorf, IA
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 36 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.8 billion
- Population: 38,997
6. Camden, NJ
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Value of all homes: $1.1 billion
- Population: 71,799
5. Grand Forks, ND
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 84 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.0 billion
- Population: 58,935
4. Williston, ND
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 39 storms
- Value of all homes: $1.4 billion
- Population: 27,783
3. Dickinson, ND
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 34 storms
- Value of all homes: $1.6 billion
- Population: 25,116
2. Bismarck, ND
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 89 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.5 billion
- Population: 73,694
1. Minot, ND
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 41 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Population: 48,038
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