Severe Storm Threat Targets These Cities This Week

By Evan Comen  •  July 23, 2025
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07211720/Probability-of-hail-and-severe-thunderstorms-July-23-to-July-24-2025-150x150.png

This week, unstable air is clashing with warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico, creating ideal conditions for strong thunderstorms and damaging hail across several states. The summer storm is targeting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, putting millions of homes at risk of property damage.

Hot property? From Maui to Malibu, These Affluent Enclaves Are Becoming Wildfire Hotspots
Hold on to your hats! The U.S. Counties Getting Windier Every Year

Nationwide, 74 counties have at least a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms in the next 48 hours, representing 5.4 million Americans. At the same time, 44 counties have a 15% chance of hail, covering 233,000 Americans. The dual threats will converge in the Dakotas, threatening cities like Pierre, Bismarck, and Fargo. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest likelihood of hail and thunderstorms this week.

To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail and severe thunderstorms this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the NOAA’s National Digital Forecast. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from July 23 to July 24, 2025. Only cities with at least 10,000 residents and a non-zero chance of severe thunderstorms were considered.

16. Jamestown, ND

Photo by Steve Gribble on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 48 storms
  • Population: 15,850
 

15. West Fargo, ND

Photo by Kat Smith on Pexels

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 17 storms
  • Population: 38,653
 

14. Moorhead, MN

Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 63 storms
  • Population: 44,443
 

13. Fargo, ND

Photo by Rob Steele on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 36 storms
  • Population: 127,319
 

12. Scottsbluff, NE

Photo by Tonya Kumpula on Pexels

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 76 storms
  • Population: 14,454
 

11. Mitchell, SD

Photo by Aaron J Hill on Pexels

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 45 storms
  • Population: 15,656
 

10. Fort Morgan, CO

Photo by Valkyrie Pierce on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 45 storms
  • Population: 11,501
 

9. Huron, SD

Photo by Becky Sell on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 43 storms
  • Population: 14,179
 

8. Aberdeen, SD

Photo by Ethan Air on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 63 storms
  • Population: 28,388
 

7. Watertown, SD

Photo by Justin Wilkens on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 51 storms
  • Population: 22,718
 

6. Brookings, SD

Photo by Peng D on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 25 storms
  • Population: 23,530
 

5. Dickinson, ND

Photo by Darla Hueske on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 34 storms
  • Population: 25,116
 

4. Bismarck, ND

Photo by Kara Reeves on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 89 storms
  • Population: 73,694
 

3. Mandan, ND

Photo by Sven on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 62 storms
  • Population: 24,049
 

2. North Platte, NE

Photo by Preston A Larimer on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 149 storms
  • Population: 23,309
 

1. Pierre, SD

Photo by Shiva Prasad Gaddameedi on Unsplash

  • Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
  • Population: 14,105
 

  1. Finding a fiduciary financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area in 5 minutes.
  2. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. Get on the path toward achieving your financial goals!
More from ClimateCrisis 247