By 2100, How High Will Summer Heat Get in America’s Largest Cities?

Many of the future effects of climate change remain unknown. But the continuation of the well-documented warming trend of recent decades is not one of them. The last 11 years each rank among the 11 hottest years on record globally, and in the United States, 2026 has so far been warmer than any other year, going back to at least 1895. Absent a rapid and substantial reduction in fossil fuel emissions, atmospheric temperatures will only continue to rise.

Recently, the Trump administration announced plans to repeal greenhouse gas emissions standards for power plants operating in the United States. If implemented, the proposal could result in a surge of heat-trapping carbon pollution—an outcome that would alter the climate landscape in the U.S. beyond recognition. 

According to a report from the non-profit research and advocacy group Climate Central, reduced commitments to a clean energy transition will send summer temperatures surging across the country. By the end of the century, summer in Minneapolis would feel more like summer in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and daily highs in places like Austin and Las Vegas would be closer to those currently felt in parts of the Middle East. 

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified what summers will feel like in America’s largest cities by the end of the century. We ranked all cities with available data on the forecasted change in average daily highs during the summer season by 2060 and 2100, listing only the 10 most populous cities. Supplemental data on cities with summer climates comparable to the projected climates of these cities are also from Climate Central. Comparison city proximities, where available, are approximations based on driving distance. Data on current summer temperatures in these places are 30-year averages from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

10. San Diego, California

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +1.8°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Tepoztlán, Mexico (approx. 1,800 miles southeast of San Diego)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +5.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Morelia, Mexico (approx. 1,600 miles southeast of San Diego)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in San Diego: 79.3°F (81.1°F by 2060, 84.4°F by 2100)

9. San Jose, California

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +2.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Anaheim, California (approx. 400 miles southeast of San Jose)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +5.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Escondido, California (approx. 450 miles southeast of San Jose)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in San Jose: 80.5°F (83.1°F by 2060, 86.1°F by 2100)

8. Los Angeles, California

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +2.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Hemet, California (approx. 90 miles southeast of Los Angeles)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +5.8°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano, Mexico (approx. 2,000 miles southeast of Los Angeles)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Los Angeles: 74.6°F (77.2°F by 2060, 80.4°F by 2100)

7. Houston, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +2.9°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Urganch, Uzbekistan
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +6.4°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Lahore, Pakistan
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Houston: 93.9°F (96.8°F by 2060, 100.3°F by 2100)

6. San Antonio, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +3.3°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Huebampo, Mexico (approx. 1,100 miles southwest of San Antonio)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Ciudad Obregón, Mexico (approx. 1,000 miles southwest of San Antonio)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in San Antonio: 94.4°F (97.7°F by 2060, 101.5°F by 2100)

5. Phoenix, Arizona

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +3.4°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Zābol, Iran
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.2°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Al Mubarraz, Saudi Arabia
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Phoenix: 105.2°F (108.6°F by 2060, 112.4°F by 2100)

4. New York, New York

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +3.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Columbia, Maryland (approx. 200 miles southwest of New York)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Columbia, South Carolina (approx. 700 miles southwest of New York)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in New York: 84.0°F (87.1°F by 2060, 91.6°F by 2100)

3. Dallas, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +3.5°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Ciudad Benito Juárez, Mexico (approx. 1,200 miles southwest of Dallas)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.8°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Ciudad Obregón, Mexico (approx. 1,250 miles southwest of Dallas)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Dallas: 94.3°F (97.8°F by 2060, 102.1°F by 2100)

2. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +3.5°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Nashville, Tennessee (approx. 800 miles southwest of Philadelphia)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +8.0°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Shreveport, Louisiana (approx. 1,300 miles southwest of Philadelphia)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Philadelphia: 85.6°F (89.1°F by 2060, 93.6°F by 2100)

1. Chicago, Illinois

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2060: +4.2°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2060 projection: Louisville, Kentucky (approx. 300 miles south of Chicago)
• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +9.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Montgomery, Alabama (approx. 800 miles south of Chicago)
• Current and projected avg. daily summer highs in Chicago: 82.9°F (87.1°F by 2060, 92.0°F by 2100)