The States Where People Have Already Left Because Of Climate Change

Story after story predicts that people will eventually flee Miami, Houston, and Phoenix because the weather in these places has become too dangerous. According to Census data, that has not happened. Phoenix, for example, had 4,875,000 residents in 2020, and that figure rose to 5,229,000 in 2025. Over that same period, Phoenix had more than 100 days with temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

At the other end of the spectrum, climate-safe cities like Detroit continue to shrink. Several studies of Phoenix point to inexpensive housing and a booming economy. It never gets cold. Phoenix Agent adds that the city has no natural disasters.

Real estate research firm Redfin believes people are leaving “flood-prone” cities. “The significant uptick in movement away from flood-prone places suggests that concerns about flooding and climate are beginning to reshape where Americans choose to settle,” its experts wrote in an article titled “Flood-Prone Parts of America Are Losing Residents at Nearly Twice Last Year’s Rate.” But the operative word is “suggests.” The evidence for that claim is thin. After all, why is Miami still growing?

The only hard data on people leaving areas because of weather disasters comes from FEMA, which buys homes damaged by weather events. This activity is chronicled in its “OpenFEMA Dataset: Hazard Mitigation Assistance Mitigated Properties.” The data covers mainly flood-prone areas where the federal government has purchased homes, or what remains of them. One key measure is the “amount of damage, expressed as a percentage, to a structure relative to the market value of the structure before the damage occurred.”

The data set is small, but it matches areas that suffered identifiable disasters. The most pronounced is western North Carolina, which was damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Helene. The National Weather Service says Helene brought “historic and catastrophic flooding, landslides, and extreme winds” to the region. Kentucky ranks next in buyouts, after being hit hard by floods in 2022. Every other state on the list also has an identifiable disaster behind its numbers.

It may take years before heat triggers a migration out of Phoenix, or before flooding and hurricanes drive people out of Miami. But some places have already lost residents. The table below shows each state, its number of FEMA buyout records, and the likely main cause.