20 Cities That Could Get a Double Dose of Hail, Severe Thunderstorms This Week
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07212340/Probability-of-hail-and-severe-thunderstorms-July-16-to-18-2025-150x150.pngA powerful summer storm system is coming to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this week. Unstable air masses are clashing with warm, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico, creating volatile conditions ripe for the development of thunderstorms and large, damaging hail.
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There are 20 major cities that face both a 5% chance of thunderstorms and at least a 5% chance of hail in the next 48 hours. While the dual threats of hail and severe thunderstorms converge in Nebraska, cities ranging from Montana to Kentucky could see strong storm activity. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest likelihood of hail and thunderstorms this week.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail and severe thunderstorms this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from July 16 to July 18, 2025. Only cities with at least 10,000 residents and a non-zero chance of severe thunderstorms were considered.
20. Sartell, MN
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 19,382
19. St. Cloud, MN
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 68,910
18. Lake Elmo, MN
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 11,861
17. New Richmond, WI
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 10,158
16. North Branch, MN
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 10,968
15. Hudson, WI
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 14,763
14. River Falls, WI
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 16,165
13. Stillwater, MN
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 19,316
12. Norfolk, NE
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 25,883
11. Scottsbluff, NE
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 14,454
10. Sterling, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 13,466
9. Yankton, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 15,421
8. Mitchell, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 15,656
7. Huron, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 14,179
6. Brandon, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 10,919
5. Watertown, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 22,718
4. Brookings, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 23,530
3. Sioux Falls, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 193,401
2. Lexington, NE
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 10,662
1. North Platte, NE
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Population: 23,309
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