As A Dangerous Storm System Shifts Course, These Are the Cities Most in the Path of Severe Weather This Week
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07224253/9949851-150x150.jpegThis past weekend, severe thunderstorms swept across portions of the Mississippi Valley. Severe storms hit parts of Texas and Missouri, while flash floods and tornadoes led to at least three deaths in Oklahoma.
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The storm system is now moving eastward, progressing toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Thunderstorm winds are forecast for a stretch of country extending from New Orleans to Buffalo, while the chance of a tornado is as high as 10% in over 300 cities – representing close to two million people. A closer look at the data reveals the major cities in the path of severe weather this week.
To determine the cities in the path of severe weather this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on significant severe thunderstorm, thunderstorm winds, and tornado probability forecasts from the National Weather Service of the NOAA. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a significant severe thunderstorm, thunderstorm winds, or a tornado within 25 miles of their border from April 21 to April 22, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.
10. St. Louis, MO
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Value of all homes: $14.5 billion
- Population: 298,018
9. North Little Rock, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 1.1%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.6%
- Value of all homes: $2.4 billion
- Population: 64,454
8. Conway, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Population: 65,159
7. Joplin, MO
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $2.2 billion
- Population: 51,848
6. Bentonville, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $4.1 billion
- Population: 54,513
5. Rogers, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 69,961
4. Springdale, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 86,705
3. Fayetteville, AR
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $5.1 billion
- Population: 95,022
2. Columbia, MO
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $6.9 billion
- Population: 126,172
1. Springfield, MO
- Probability of significant severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $5.9 billion
- Population: 168,873
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