As Supercell Conditions Form, These Are the Cities Facing the Greatest Tornado Threat This Weekend
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/07222117/tornado-prob-150x150.pngA sprawling spring storm system is setting the stage for a major tornado outbreak across the central and eastern United States this weekend, with meteorologists warning that long-lived, destructive tornadoes could carve through multiple states from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
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In what has already been the worst tornado season in more than a decade, nearly 200 million Americans now face some level of severe weather risk. Close to 50 cities with at least 50,000 residents have a 10% chance of experiencing a tornado in the next 48 hours, while more than 40 major cities have a chance of a significant tornado rated EF2 or higher – with winds greater than 111 miles per hour. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the greatest tornado threat this weekend.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by tornadoes this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on tornado probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a tornado or a significant tornado – one rated EF2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale – within 25 miles of their border from May 16 to May 18, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 100,000 residents were considered.
25. Minneapolis, MN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Value of all homes: $35.5 billion
- Population: 426,877
24. Memphis, TN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 26 storms
- Value of all homes: $24.8 billion
- Population: 630,027
23. Dayton, OH
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 3 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Population: 137,305
22. Springfield, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 11 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.9 billion
- Population: 114,214
21. St. Paul, MN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 1 storm
- Value of all homes: $21.1 billion
- Population: 308,806
20. Green Bay, WI
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 3 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.0 billion
- Population: 106,846
19. Lansing, MI
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 112,986
18. Grand Rapids, MI
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 3 storms
- Value of all homes: $9.4 billion
- Population: 198,096
17. Rockford, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 6 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 148,173
16. Fort Wayne, IN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.5%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 0.8%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 10 storms
- Value of all homes: $11.9 billion
- Population: 264,514
15. Lexington, KY
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 7.6%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 1.8%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Value of all homes: $23.6 billion
- Population: 321,276
14. Clarksville, TN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 8.9%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 2.2%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 7 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.2 billion
- Population: 167,882
13. Madison, WI
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 8.5%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 5.5%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 9 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.5 billion
- Population: 268,516
12. St. Louis, MO
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 8.6%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Value of all homes: $14.5 billion
- Population: 298,018
11. Indianapolis, IN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 8.6%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 36 storms
- Value of all homes: $45.3 billion
- Population: 882,006
10. Joliet, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 9.8%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 9.7%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 11 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.9 billion
- Population: 150,221
9. Cincinnati, OH
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Value of all homes: $15.0 billion
- Population: 308,870
8. Louisville, KY
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 13 storms
- Value of all homes: $41.8 billion
- Population: 629,176
7. Milwaukee, WI
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 9 storms
- Value of all homes: $17.8 billion
- Population: 573,299
6. Aurora, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Value of all homes: $11.1 billion
- Population: 181,405
5. Elgin, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 2 storms
- Value of all homes: $7.3 billion
- Population: 114,190
4. Naperville, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.7 billion
- Population: 149,089
3. Chicago, IL
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 12 storms
- Value of all homes: $213.9 billion
- Population: 2,721,914
2. South Bend, IN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 8 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 103,084
1. Evansville, IN
- Probability of significant tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of tornado event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- No. tornado events, 1950-2024: 6 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.3 billion
- Population: 116,906
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