Cities Where the Next Pandemic Is Most Likely to Break Out

By Evan Comen  •  November 13, 2024
Detailed illustration of coronavirus structure with red spike proteins.https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/3993212-150x150.jpg

Many of the forces that contribute to climate change also contribute to the risk of future pandemics. As human societies develop and expand into the wildland-urban interface, wildlife is diminished and the risk of viral transmission between animals and humans is increased. Novel spillover viruses can spread rapidly in a hyperconnected, high-emission system of global air travel, as the world saw with COVID-19.

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In a recent paper, “Whence the next pandemic? The intersecting global geography of the animal-human interface, poor health systems and air transit centrality reveals conduits for high-impact spillover,” researchers identified cities with high animal-human spillover risk and quantified the degree of connectivity those cities have with the rest of the world to determine where the next global pandemic could emerge. An analysis of the data, as well as supplemental data on the locations of laboratories handling highly contagious pathogens and biological agents, reveals the cities where the next pandemic is most likely to break out.

To determine the cities where the next pandemic is most likely to break out, Climate Crisis 247 developed an index based on global air travel connectivity, bird species richness, mammal species richness, and distance to the nearest laboratories with biosafety level 3 or biosafety level 4 classification. Data on travel connectivity is from the paper “Whence the next pandemic? The intersecting global geography of the animal-human interface, poor health systems and air transit centrality reveals conduits for high-impact spillover” and is based on airport locations and flight connectivity. Data on bird species richness and mammal species richness is from the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Data on BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory locations is from Global Biolabs.

25. Hong Kong, SAR

Pexels / Jimmy Chan

  • Global connectivity score: 62.40/100
  • Bird species richness score: N/A
  • Mammal species richness score: N/A
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 541.1 miles
 

24. Johannesburg, South Africa

Pexels / Sizwe Shabalala

  • Global connectivity score: 13.28/100
  • Bird species richness score: 46.39/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 30.22/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 8.7 miles
 

23. Belem, Brazil

Pexels / Italo Melo

  • Global connectivity score: 2.30/100
  • Bird species richness score: 79.72/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 82.73/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 1,535.7 miles
 

22. Guwahati, India

Pexels / Pragyan Bezbaruah

  • Global connectivity score: 4.75/100
  • Bird species richness score: 77.51/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 46.04/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 579.8 miles
 

21. Douala, Cameroon

Pexels / Aymar Ngahan

  • Global connectivity score: 0.75/100
  • Bird species richness score: 64.06/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 63.31/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 471.5 miles
 

19. Shenzhen, China

Pexels / Nick Kwan

  • Global connectivity score: 68.41/100
  • Bird species richness score: N/A
  • Mammal species richness score: N/A
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 535.9 miles
 

18. Nairobi, Kenya

Pexels / PICHA

  • Global connectivity score: 5.54/100
  • Bird species richness score: 85.34/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 85.61/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 1,611.2 miles
 

17. Bogota, Colombia

Pexels / Enrique Hoyos

  • Global connectivity score: 17.09/100
  • Bird species richness score: 73.69/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 97.12/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 2,114.2 miles
 

16. Xian, China

Pexels / Robert Stokoe

  • Global connectivity score: 61.48/100
  • Bird species richness score: 9.24/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 9.35/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 472.4 miles
 

15. Chongqing, China

Pexels / L JY

  • Global connectivity score: 53.57/100
  • Bird species richness score: 18.07/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 20.14/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 400.7 miles
 

14. Manaus, Brazil

Pexels / Kelly

  • Global connectivity score: 0.73/100
  • Bird species richness score: 100.00/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 100.00/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 1,688.4 miles
 

13. Jakarta, Indonesia

Pexels / Tom Fisk

  • Global connectivity score: 62.55/100
  • Bird species richness score: 43.78/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 25.90/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 1,481.9 miles
 

12. Curitiba, Brazil

Pexels / João Saplak

  • Global connectivity score: 8.99/100
  • Bird species richness score: 77.11/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 58.27/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 216.2 miles
 

11. Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Pexels / Magno Ciqueira

  • Global connectivity score: 8.73/100
  • Bird species richness score: 70.28/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 72.66/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 331.8 miles
 

10. Chiang Mai, Thailand

Pexels / Tim Durgan

  • Global connectivity score: 8.84/100
  • Bird species richness score: 73.49/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 67.63/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 257.8 miles
 

9. Campinas, Brazil

Pexels / Gustavo Juliette

  • Global connectivity score: 0.69/100
  • Bird species richness score: 83.73/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 73.38/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 47.6 miles
 

8. Mumbai, India

Pexels / Rizwan Sayyed

  • Global connectivity score: 83.47/100
  • Bird species richness score: N/A
  • Mammal species richness score: N/A
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 74.8 miles
 

7. Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Pexels / Vinícius Vieira ft

  • Global connectivity score: 13.73/100
  • Bird species richness score: 85.34/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 69.78/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 246.4 miles
 

6. Kunming, China

Pexels / gokudo man'yūki

  • Global connectivity score: 53.55/100
  • Bird species richness score: 44.58/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 36.69/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 22.9 miles
 

5. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Pexels / Zukiman Mohamad

  • Global connectivity score: 50.25/100
  • Bird species richness score: 57.63/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 72.66/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 825.4 miles
 

4. Bangkok, Thailand

Pexels / Olivier Darny

  • Global connectivity score: 74.07/100
  • Bird species richness score: 32.33/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 23.02/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 83.7 miles
 

3. Chengdu, China

Pexels / AG ZN

  • Global connectivity score: 89.74/100
  • Bird species richness score: 20.88/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 25.18/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 391.9 miles
 

2. São Paulo, Brazil

Pexels / Caio

  • Global connectivity score: 29.51/100
  • Bird species richness score: 84.94/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 73.38/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 20.1 miles
 

1. Guangzhou, China

Pexels / Matthew Zheng

  • Global connectivity score: 100.00/100
  • Bird species richness score: 39.76/100
  • Mammal species richness score: 12.23/100
  • Distance to nearest BSL-3+ laboratory: 486.4 miles
 

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