Days After Near-Record Hailstones Fall in Texas, Another Round of Severe Weather Is Targeting These Cities
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/07220929/1914266-150x150.jpgJust days after Memorial Day storms battered parts of Texas with DVD-sized hailstones, another round of severe weather is threatening to bring large, damaging hail and isolated tornadoes to the central U.S. this week. Forecasters warn that a potent spring storm system will sweep across the southern Plains, with central Texas once again in the bullseye for “gorilla hail” – forecaster slang for hailstones larger than two inches in diameter.
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Nationwide, 96 counties have at least a 15% chance of hail in the next 72 hours, representing 2.5 million Americans. Many of the same counties also have an elevated possibility of tornadoes, as well as severe thunderstorms. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the greatest hail threat this week.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from May 29 to May 31, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 40,000 residents were considered.
20. New Braunfels, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 1.8%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 50 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Population: 92,993
19. Stillwater, OK
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 86 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 2 storms
- Population: 48,644
18. Wichita, KS
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 556 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 23 storms
- Population: 395,951
17. San Marcos, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 52 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 6 storms
- Population: 67,143
16. College Station, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 53 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 7 storms
- Population: 120,451
15. Kyle, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 11.7%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 9 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 48,484
14. Bryan, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 12.3%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 45 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 10 storms
- Population: 84,820
13. Amarillo, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 12.8%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 1.7%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 694 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 18 storms
- Population: 200,360
12. San Angelo, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 13.9%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 239 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 9 storms
- Population: 99,422
11. Enid, OK
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 143 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 13 storms
- Population: 50,961
10. Temple, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 65 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 11 storms
- Population: 83,473
9. Waco, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 105 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 13 storms
- Population: 140,545
8. Georgetown, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 65 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 6 storms
- Population: 71,788
7. Killeen, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 87 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 9 storms
- Population: 153,708
6. Cedar Park, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 32 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 0 storms
- Population: 76,344
5. Leander, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 41 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Population: 62,491
4. Round Rock, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 4 storms
- Population: 120,465
3. Abilene, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 245 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 10 storms
- Population: 126,356
2. Pflugerville, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 24 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 3 storms
- Population: 64,528
1. Austin, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- Probability of tornado in next 72 hours: 2.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 320 storms
- No. tornadoes, 1950-2024: 32 storms
- Population: 958,202
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