Expect Severe Thunderstorms In These Cities This Weekend

By Evan Comen  •  May 9, 2025
An electrifying lightning storm illuminates a modern city skyline at night, showcasing nature's power.https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/1576369-150x150.jpeg

A slow-moving weather system draped across the southern and eastern U.S. is expected to bring multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms through Mother’s Day weekend, with several major cities at elevated risk for damaging winds, heavy downpours, and flash flooding.

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While no major outbreak is expected, dangerous thunderstorms are likely to erupt in scattered clusters from Florida to the Carolinas and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. These storms may carry high wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding, especially in areas still recovering from previous weather events like Hurricane Helene. A closer look at the data reveals the cities most likely to experience severe thunderstorms this weekend.

To determine the cities most likely to get thunderstorms this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on severe thunderstorm and thunderstorm wind probability forecasts from the National Weather Service of the NOAA. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a severe thunderstorm or thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of their border from May 9 to May 11, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered.

10. Orlando, FL

Photo by Cody Board on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 5.6%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 2.0 inches
  • Value of all homes: $19.7 billion
  • Population: 307,738
 

9. Raleigh, NC

Photo by Elijah Mears on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 12.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.5 inches
  • Value of all homes: $41.1 billion
  • Population: 465,517
 

8. Fayetteville, NC

Photo by Kres Thomas on Pexels

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 13.1%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.3 inches
  • Value of all homes: $7.2 billion
  • Population: 208,697
 

7. Winston-Salem, NC

Photo by Rick Lobs on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 4.9%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.5 inches
  • Value of all homes: $13.3 billion
  • Population: 249,571
 

6. Durham, NC

Photo by Charles Givens on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.3 inches
  • Value of all homes: $22.2 billion
  • Population: 284,094
 

5. Greensboro, NC

Photo by Samuel Cruz on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.3 inches
  • Value of all homes: $15.1 billion
  • Population: 297,202
 

4. Charlotte, NC

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.5 inches
  • Value of all homes: $77.3 billion
  • Population: 875,045
 

3. Cary, NC

Photo by Div Manickam on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 0.5 inches
  • Value of all homes: $23.7 billion
  • Population: 174,880
 

2. Augusta, GA

Photo by José Roberto Oliveira on Pexels

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 1.5 inches
  • Value of all homes: $6.9 billion
  • Population: 201,615
 

1. Jacksonville, FL

Photo by Matthew Williams on Unsplash

  • Probability of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
  • Probability of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
  • Forecast cumulative rainfall for next 48 hours: 3.0 inches
  • Value of all homes: $64.6 billion
  • Population: 950,203
 

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