From Chicago to New York, A Heat Wave Is Spreading East: These 25 Cities Will Be Hit Next

By Evan Comen • July 23, 2025

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This week, a heat dome is slowly spreading east. The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for 963 counties, representing 69.2 million Americans. While 15.0 million Americans will be exposed to moderate heat risk on Wednesday, that number will jump to 48.4 million by Friday, as heat risk grips cities from North Carolina to New Jersey.

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To determine where the heat wave is going next, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score from July 23 to July 26, 2025. Raster data were averaged across Census place boundaries using zonal statistics functions in QGIS. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered. Supplemental data on population are from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Durham, NC

Photo by Colin Rowley on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 85.1°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 88.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 89.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 91.7°F)
Total population: 284,094

24. Plano, TX

Photo by Mehmet Ali Eroglu on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 97.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 98.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 99.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 101.4°F)
Total population: 284,948

23. Raleigh, NC

Photo by Jason Li on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 85.1°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 88.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 89.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 91.7°F)
Total population: 465,517

22. Milwaukee, WI

Photo by Miguel Ángel Sanz on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Major (high of 81.5°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 93.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 92.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Minor (high of 93.1°F)
Total population: 573,299

21. New York, NY

Photo by Michael Discenza on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 79.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 85.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 85.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 89.2°F)
Total population: 8,622,467

20. Jersey City, NJ

Photo by Zoshua Colah on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 80.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 86.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 86.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 91.0°F)
Total population: 287,899

19. Lexington-Fayette, KY

Photo by Elisa Kennemer on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 87.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 91.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 92.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 92.2°F)
Total population: 321,276

18. Philadelphia, PA

Photo by ActionVance on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 82.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 86.5°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 85.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 89.3°F)
Total population: 1,593,208

17. Newark, NJ

Photo by Jimmy Woo on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 82.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 88.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 88.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 93.0°F)
Total population: 307,355

16. Baltimore, MD

Photo by Irina Sitnikova on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Minor (high of 84.1°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 85.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 86.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 91.0°F)
Total population: 584,548

15. Louisville, KY

Photo by Joshua Michaels on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 89.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Moderate (high of 92.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 92.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 93.7°F)
Total population: 629,176

14. Columbus, OH

Photo by Ellie Brown on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 84.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 90.2°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 89.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 92.9°F)
Total population: 902,449

13. Cleveland, OH

Photo by DJ Johnson on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 82.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 89.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 88.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 93.0°F)
Total population: 370,365

12. Toledo, OH

Photo by Cathy Holewinski on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 79.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 88.5°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 87.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 93.2°F)
Total population: 269,962

11. Detroit, MI

Photo by Kahari king on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 81.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 89.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 88.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 94.5°F)
Total population: 636,787

10. Buffalo, NY

Photo by Shamir Hunley on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 77.1°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 85.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 85.2°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 88.5°F)
Total population: 276,688

9. Madison, WI

Photo by Josh Sorenson on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Major (high of 84.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 92.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 92.5°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 89.8°F)
Total population: 268,516

8. Pittsburgh, PA

Photo by Vidar Nordli-Mathisen on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 83.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 90.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 90.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 93.6°F)
Total population: 303,843

7. Fort Wayne, IN

Photo by Javier Bailey on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 83.2°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 89.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 89.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 92.8°F)
Total population: 264,514

6. Memphis, TN

Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Extreme (high of 98.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 98.6°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 99.2°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 97.5°F)
Total population: 630,027

5. Chicago, IL

Photo by Erol Ahmed on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Major (high of 85.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 96.4°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Moderate (high of 94.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 96.3°F)
Total population: 2,721,914

4. Cincinnati, OH

Photo by Rafik Wahba on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 87.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 92.3°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 92.5°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Moderate (high of 94.4°F)
Total population: 308,870

3. Indianapolis, IN

Photo by Corbin Mathias on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Moderate (high of 85.1°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 89.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 90.2°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 92.8°F)
Total population: 882,006

2. St. Louis, MO

Photo by Alin Andersen on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Major (high of 95.8°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 97.9°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 97.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 97.9°F)
Total population: 298,018

1. Nashville, TN

Photo by Brandon Jean on Unsplash

Average heat risk, July 23: Major (high of 94.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 24: Major (high of 96.0°F)
Average heat risk, July 25: Major (high of 95.7°F)
Average heat risk, July 26: Major (high of 94.5°F)
Total population: 684,103

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