Get Ready: The Cities Where the Heat Wave Is Going Next

By Evan Comen • June 25, 2025

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After a long spring with abnormally cool temperatures and unusually heavy precipitation, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is in the midst of the summer’s first extreme heat dome. As temperatures pushed past 100°F in dozens of major metros – with some cities experiencing triple-digit heat for the first time in recorded history – the National Weather Service issued heat warnings in nearly 500 counties, representing more than one in four Americans.

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While temperatures will begin to cool for large swaths of the United States on Wednesday, the heat dome is forecast to push westward and southward into the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Extreme heat risk will shift to moderate or minor heat risk in cities like New York and Boston, while cities in the Central U.S. will continue to experience extreme heat risk through the end of the week. A closer look at NWS forecasts and warning data reveals the cities where the heat wave will last the longest.

To determine where the heat wave is going next, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score from June 25 to June 28. Raster data were averaged across Census place boundaries using zonal statistics functions in QGIS. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered. Supplemental data on population are from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Philadelphia, PA

Photo by ActionVance on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 100.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 98.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Minor (high of 86.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Minor (high of 73.7°F)
Total population: 1,593,208

24. Jersey City, NJ

Photo by Zhen Yao on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 98.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 94.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Minor (high of 78.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Minor (high of 70.3°F)
Total population: 287,899

23. Newark, NJ

Photo by Robert Thiemann on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 102.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 96.2°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Minor (high of 79.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Minor (high of 71.9°F)
Total population: 307,355

22. Miami, FL

Photo by Antonio Cuellar on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Moderate (high of 87.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 87.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 87.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 88.1°F)
Total population: 443,665

21. Kansas City, MO

Photo by Kate Torline on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Moderate (high of 91.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 93.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 93.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 91.3°F)
Total population: 505,958

20. Baltimore, MD

Photo by Irina Sitnikova on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 100.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 97.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Minor (high of 92.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Minor (high of 78.7°F)
Total population: 584,548

19. Memphis, TN

Photo by Uncle Rico on Pexels

Average heat risk, June 25: Moderate (high of 97.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 95.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 95.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 93.8°F)
Total population: 630,027

18. Cleveland, OH

Photo by DJ Johnson on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Moderate (high of 92.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 83.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 84.2°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 88.3°F)
Total population: 370,365

17. Toledo, OH

Photo by Cathy Holewinski on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Moderate (high of 95.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 83.2°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 85.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 88.9°F)
Total population: 269,962

16. Greensboro, NC

Photo by Samuel Cruz on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Major (high of 99.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 97.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 93.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 92.0°F)
Total population: 297,202

15. Washington, DC

Photo by Jeffrey Clayton on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 101.3°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Moderate (high of 97.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Minor (high of 93.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 80.8°F)
Total population: 670,587

14. Atlanta, GA

Photo by Brad Huchteman on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 98.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 97.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 93.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Minor (high of 92.0°F)
Total population: 494,838

13. Charlotte, NC

Photo by Daniel Weiss on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 99.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 98.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 93.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 92.2°F)
Total population: 875,045

12. Fort Wayne, IN

Photo by Matt Thomas on Pexels

Average heat risk, June 25: Major (high of 92.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 87.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 88.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 89.7°F)
Total population: 264,514

11. Virginia Beach, VA

Photo by Lison Zhao on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 92.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 91.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Moderate (high of 91.3°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 88.0°F)
Total population: 457,900

10. Lexington-Fayette, KY

Photo by Cody Nottingham on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 94.3°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 94.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 92.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Moderate (high of 92.1°F)
Total population: 321,276

9. Pittsburgh, PA

Photo by Tyler Rutherford on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 96.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 92.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 89.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 90.0°F)
Total population: 303,843

8. Columbus, OH

Photo by Joe Deptowicz on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 95.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 92.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 91.3°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 92.5°F)
Total population: 902,449

7. Indianapolis, IN

Photo by Ryan De Hamer on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 93.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 92.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 92.3°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 91.4°F)
Total population: 882,006

6. Durham, NC

Photo by Colin Rowley on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 102.2°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 99.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 95.8°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 93.9°F)
Total population: 284,094

5. Raleigh, NC

Photo by Jay Honeycutt on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 101.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Major (high of 99.6°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 95.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 93.8°F)
Total population: 465,517

4. Louisville, KY

Photo by Jon McCallon on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 95.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 94.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 93.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 93.1°F)
Total population: 629,176

3. Nashville, TN

Photo by Austin Wills on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 96.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 97.0°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Major (high of 95.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 93.5°F)
Total population: 684,103

2. Cincinnati, OH

Photo by Matt Koffel on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 95.7°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 94.1°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Extreme (high of 92.9°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 93.4°F)
Total population: 308,870

1. St. Louis, MO

Photo by Alin Andersen on Unsplash

Average heat risk, June 25: Extreme (high of 95.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 26: Extreme (high of 96.5°F)
Average heat risk, June 27: Extreme (high of 96.4°F)
Average heat risk, June 28: Major (high of 96.3°F)
Total population: 298,018

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