‘Golf Ball Hail’ Forecast for the Central US: See the Cities Facing the Biggest Threat This Week
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/07221627/Probability-of-hail-May-22-to-May-24-150x150.pngA powerful late-May storm system is forecast to strike parts of the central and southeastern U.S. over the next few days, bringing widespread threats of large, damaging hail. Meteorologists warn that conditions are ripe for hailstones exceeding two inches in diameter – described by some as “golf ball sized” or “tennis ball hail” – as warm, unstable air collides with a potent storm front sweeping through the region. Homes, vehicles, and crops across several states could be at risk.
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Hundreds of cities have at least a 5% chance of hail over the next two days, representing more than 25 million Americans. Dozens of major cities face at least a 15% chance of hail, some forecast to receive hailstones larger than two inches in diameter that could cause significant damage to roofs, windows, vehicles, and other property. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the biggest hail threat this week.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail within 25 miles of their border from May 22 to May 24, 2025. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.
25. Carrollton, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 20 storms
- Value of all homes: $10.4 billion
- Population: 132,284
24. Coral Springs, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 10 storms
- Value of all homes: $12.8 billion
- Population: 133,801
23. Miramar, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 5 storms
- Value of all homes: $12.2 billion
- Population: 135,158
22. McAllen, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 24 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.4 billion
- Population: 142,722
21. Mesquite, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 37 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.8 billion
- Population: 149,439
20. Hollywood, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 18 storms
- Value of all homes: $15.0 billion
- Population: 152,764
19. Pembroke Pines, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 19 storms
- Value of all homes: $16.9 billion
- Population: 170,472
18. Fort Lauderdale, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 20 storms
- Value of all homes: $28.7 billion
- Population: 182,673
17. Akron, OH
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 69 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.7 billion
- Population: 190,273
16. Grand Prairie, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 66 storms
- Value of all homes: $10.4 billion
- Population: 197,279
15. Frisco, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 89 storms
- Value of all homes: $28.5 billion
- Population: 202,075
14. Port St. Lucie, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 25 storms
- Value of all homes: $19.9 billion
- Population: 210,520
13. Hialeah, FL
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 21 storms
- Value of all homes: $12.3 billion
- Population: 222,996
12. Garland, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 73 storms
- Value of all homes: $12.5 billion
- Population: 244,026
11. Chesapeake, VA
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 72 storms
- Value of all homes: $24.1 billion
- Population: 249,377
10. Irving, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
- Value of all homes: $10.9 billion
- Population: 254,962
9. Plano, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 115 storms
- Value of all homes: $28.6 billion
- Population: 284,948
8. Arlington, TX
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 153 storms
- Value of all homes: $21.0 billion
- Population: 393,469
7. Springdale, AR
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.5%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.6 billion
- Population: 86,705
6. Springfield, MO
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 5.8%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 263 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.9 billion
- Population: 168,873
5. Greenville, NC
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 12.8%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 46 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Population: 87,894
4. Joplin, MO
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 86 storms
- Value of all homes: $2.2 billion
- Population: 51,848
3. Jonesboro, AR
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 73 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.0 billion
- Population: 78,379
2. Bentonville, AR
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 70 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.1 billion
- Population: 54,513
1. Rogers, AR
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 41 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 69,961
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