‘Gorilla Hail’ Forecast for the South and Midwest: See the Cities Facing the Biggest Hail Threat This Week
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07223852/8804585-1-150x150.jpegA major spring storm system is forecast to hammer parts of the central U.S. with large, damaging hail over the next two days, threatening homes, vehicles, and crops across several states. Forecasters are predicting a high probability of hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – characterized by some local weathermen as “gorilla hail” or "tennis ball hail" – as unstable air clashes with incoming storm fronts this week.
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There are 40 cities with populations of at least 50,000 that face at least a 30% chance of hail over the next two days, representing more than four million Americans. More than 50 major cities face at least a 10% chance of significant hail – storms with hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – that could cause significant damage to roofs, windows, vehicles, and other property. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the biggest hail threat this week.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from April 28 to April 29, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 100,000 residents were considered.
20. Lincoln, NE
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 177 storms
- Value of all homes: $17.8 billion
- Population: 290,531
19. Wichita Falls, TX
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 241 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.5 billion
- Population: 102,482
18. Lee's Summit, MO
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 117 storms
- Value of all homes: $9.5 billion
- Population: 101,728
17. Olathe, KS
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 123 storms
- Value of all homes: $12.6 billion
- Population: 142,114
16. Wichita, KS
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 552 storms
- Value of all homes: $19.0 billion
- Population: 395,951
15. Overland Park, KS
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 15.4%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 124 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.7 billion
- Population: 196,676
14. Topeka, KS
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 24.1%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 264 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Population: 126,431
13. Kansas City, MO
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 24.5%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 409 storms
- Value of all homes: $29.2 billion
- Population: 505,958
12. Green Bay, WI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 8.8%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 24 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.0 billion
- Population: 106,846
11. Omaha, NE
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 28.4%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 263 storms
- Value of all homes: $28.8 billion
- Population: 489,201
10. Independence, MO
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 28.6%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 92 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.4 billion
- Population: 122,218
9. Sioux Falls, SD
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 258 storms
- Value of all homes: $14.5 billion
- Population: 193,401
8. Kansas City, KS
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 126 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.8 billion
- Population: 155,438
7. Davenport, IA
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 91 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.9 billion
- Population: 101,448
6. Madison, WI
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 100 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.5 billion
- Population: 268,516
5. Cedar Rapids, IA
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 137 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.1 billion
- Population: 136,929
4. Des Moines, IA
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 201 storms
- Value of all homes: $10.5 billion
- Population: 213,164
3. Rochester, MN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 122 storms
- Value of all homes: $10.2 billion
- Population: 120,848
2. St. Paul, MN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 90 storms
- Value of all homes: $21.1 billion
- Population: 308,806
1. Minneapolis, MN
- Probability of significant hail event in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Probability of hail event in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2023: 98 storms
- Value of all homes: $35.5 billion
- Population: 426,877
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