Has FEMA Underestimated Flood Risk in Wisconsin? These Cities Are Most Vulnerable to Flooding

yellow caution wet road sign on gray concrete road

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Thunderstorms clobbered the Midwest over the weekend, dropping a historic volume of rain in parts of Wisconsin. Milwaukee was hit particularly hard, as a municipal rain gauge recorded an accumulation of 14.5 inches of rain in a 24 hour period – more than three times the total rainfall the city reported throughout July 2025, and nearly the same amount of rain the city received during the month of August in each of the last four years combined.

Torrential rain pushed the Milwaukee River to a record-high 11.19 feet, and prompted county officials to declare a state of emergency. As streets, homes, and businesses across the city flooded, the Milwaukee Fire Department carried out dozens of rescue operations.

As is the case in much of the country, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, may be underestimating flood risk in Wisconsin. According to a report from the First Street Foundation, a non-profit climate-risk research group, there may be as many as 273,400 properties across Wisconsin that are at substantial risk of flooding – meaning a 1% chance of flooding in a given year, and a more than 26% chance of flooding at least once every 30 years. The First Street Foundation’s estimates – which incorporate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, the World Climate Research Programme, and FEMA – is 1.9 times higher than official government estimates.

First Street also analyzed flood risk for communities across Wisconsin, and in many of the state’s larger cities – including MIlwaukee – thousands of properties were determined to be at substantial flood risk. In the coming decades, risk exposure in these places is only expected to increase.

Using data from the First Street Foundation’s 2020 report, “The First National Flood Risk Assessment,” Climate Crisis 247 identified the cities in Wisconsin where the most people are exposed to flood risk. Wisconsin cities are ranked by the number of properties at substantial flood risk, as determined by First Street. Supplemental population data are five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey.

Across the 10 cities on this list, there are nearly 49,000 properties that face substantial flood risk. By the year 2050, this number is expected to exceed 52,250.

10. Janesville, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 2,718 (11% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 2,818 (12% of properties in city)
Local population: 65,813

9. Wausau, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 2,807 (18% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 2,843 (19% of properties in city)
Local population: 39,893

7. Racine, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 3,677 (14% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 3,817 (15% of properties in city)
Local population: 77,155

6. Kenosha, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 3,748 (13% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 3,943 (13% of properties in city)
Local population: 99,147

5. Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 4,270 (19% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 4,312 (19% of properties in city)
Local population: 69,274

4. Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 4,963 (33% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 5,112 (34% of properties in city)
Local population: 44,491

3. La Crosse, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 5,699 (35% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 5,746 (35% of properties in city)
Local population: 51,791

2. Madison, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 5,755 (9% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 5,932 (10% of properties in city)
Local population: 275,568

1. Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Properties at substantial flood risk: 12,203 (8% of properties in city)
Projected number of properties at substantial flood risk by 2050: 12,499 (8% of properties in city)
Local population: 569,756