Record-Breaking, Triple-Digit Heat to Roast These Cities Across the US This Week
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/07222236/Maximum-temperature-May-15-to-May-17-150x150.pngAn early-season heat wave is poised to sweep across the southern and central U.S. this week, breaking temperature records and putting millions at risk from extreme heat.
A northward shift in the jet stream has allowed a heat dome to settle over much of the southern Plains and Southwest, baking states like Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico. Forecasts show daily high temperatures in cities such as Dallas, Austin, and Phoenix surging past 100°F, levels more common in July or August. In many areas, temperatures will exceed historical averages by more than 20 degrees, with some cities on track to break all-time May records by five degrees or more.
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In Laredo, TX, Thursday’s forecast high of 110°F would exceed historical records by more than eight degrees. The state’s primary power grid operator, ERCOT, expects electricity demand to approach record highs, nearing 84,000 megawatts – just shy of the all-time peak set during the brutal summer of 2023.
The sudden surge in heat is also expected to strain public health systems. Officials have opened cooling centers across Texas, and the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for much of the region. A closer look at the data reveals the cities that could break temperature records this week.
To determine the cities most likely to break heat records this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed 72-hour temperature forecasts and historical daily records from the NOAA. Cities were ranked based on the gap between forecast highs for May 15-17, 2025, and historical maximum temperatures for those dates. Gridded forecast data are from the National Digital Forecast Database, while historical temperatures are from the Global Historical Climatology Network daily program of the National Centers for Environmental Information. Weather stations were matched to places using nearest neighbor analysis and were limited to cities within 50 miles of the city centroid. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.
25. Little Rock, AR
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 92.9°F (+2.9°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 90.0°F (May 15, 1899)
- Total population: 202,218
24. Shreveport, LA
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 94.9°F (+3.0°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 91.9°F (May 15, 1944)
- Total population: 186,183
23. St. Peters, MO
- Forecast maximum, May 16: 92.2°F (+3.1°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 89.1°F (May 16, 2013)
- Total population: 57,692
22. San Marcos, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 103.4°F (+3.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 100.0°F (May 15, 1925)
- Total population: 67,143
21. Wylie, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 96.4°F (+3.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.0°F (May 15, 1955)
- Total population: 57,063
20. Irving, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 100.5°F (+3.5°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 97.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 254,962
19. Oklahoma City, OK
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 96.9°F (+3.9°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 681,088
18. Hoffman Estates, IL
- Forecast maximum, May 16: 91.1°F (+4.0°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 87.1°F (May 16, 1977)
- Total population: 51,744
17. McAllen, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 16: 100.2°F (+4.1°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 96.1°F (May 16, 1974)
- Total population: 142,722
16. Apex, NC
- Forecast maximum, May 17: 91.2°F (+4.1°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 87.1°F (May 17, 1998)
- Total population: 65,541
15. Dallas, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 99.5°F (+4.5°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 1,300,642
14. Grapevine, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 99.6°F (+4.6°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 1911)
- Total population: 50,763
13. Fort Worth, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 99.6°F (+4.6°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 924,663
12. Temple, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 100.2°F (+5.2°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 1925)
- Total population: 83,473
11. Denton, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 98.2°F (+5.2°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 142,262
10. College Station, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 98.2°F (+5.2°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.0°F (May 15, 1978)
- Total population: 120,451
9. New Braunfels, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 103.9°F (+5.8°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 98.1°F (May 15, 2003)
- Total population: 92,993
8. Arlington, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 100.3°F (+6.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.9°F (May 15, 1995)
- Total population: 393,469
7. San Antonio, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 16: 103.5°F (+6.5°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 97.0°F (May 16, 2003)
- Total population: 1,445,662
6. Grand Prairie, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 99.6°F (+6.6°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 93.0°F (May 15, 1995)
- Total population: 197,279
5. Georgetown, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 102.8°F (+6.7°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 96.1°F (May 15, 2003)
- Total population: 71,788
4. Waco, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 98.9°F (+7.0°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 91.9°F (May 15, 1984)
- Total population: 140,545
3. Killeen, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 102.4°F (+7.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 2022)
- Total population: 153,708
2. Laredo, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 110.3°F (+7.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 102.9°F (May 15, 1910)
- Total population: 255,293
1. Austin, TX
- Forecast maximum, May 15: 103.4°F (+8.4°F above record)
- Highest recorded maximum for period: 95.0°F (May 15, 1925)
- Total population: 958,202