States at Highest Risk For a Major Hurricane in 2025

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The start of the 2025 hurricane season is less than a month away. While neither the frequency nor the intensity of the storms the U.S. may face in the coming months can be predicted with any degree of certainty, an analysis of historical data offers little reason for optimism.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there were 21 tropical cyclones, or hurricanes, that caused at least $1 billion in damage in the U.S. from 2020 through 2024. Meanwhile, there were only 12 hurricanes that caused similar destruction throughout the 2010s, and 19 reported over the 20 years from 1980 to 1999. In 2024 alone, the total destruction wrought by the five major hurricanes that caused at least $1 billion in damage totaled $125.3 billion – more than double the $46.9 billion in damage caused by major, billion-dollar hurricanes over the entire decade of the 1980s, accounting for inflation.

Of course, some parts of the U.S. are at greater risk of severe hurricane damage than others. According to NOAA, 19 states and Washington, D.C. have not been impacted by a major hurricane (one resulting in at least $1 billion in damage) since at least 1980. All available historical data suggests that, of the 31 states that have suffered damage from a major hurricane in the last 44 years, most have a 5% or greater chance of being impacted by a major tropical cyclone in the coming hurricane season.

Climate Crisis 247 identified the 25 states at highest risk of major hurricane damage in 2025. Hurricane risk was calculated by taking the total number of major hurricanes that have impacted each state since 1980, and dividing that number by 44, the number years of available historical data. Only states determined to have a greater than 5% chance of being impacted by a major hurricane in 2025 were included in this analysis. All data in this story, including supplemental data, are from NOAA. All risk calculations in this story are based on historical patterns only.

The calculated odds of a major hurricane impacting the states on this list in 2025 ranges from 6.8% to 81.8%. The highest ranking states on this list – those at greatest hurricane risk – are concentrated in the Southeastern United States, along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts. New York, a state impacted by 16 major hurricanes since 1980, is the only state outside of this region to rank in the top 10.

It is important to note that these projections may, if anything, underestimate hurricane risk in 2025, as hurricanes have become more severe and more common in recent years, and the calculations used in this story are based on historical data going back to 1980.

25. Vermont

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 6.8%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 3
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $1.2 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Vermont since 1980: 1985, 1999, 2011; 1 major hurricane impacted state each year

24. Indiana

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 6.8%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 3
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $1.3 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Indiana since 1980: 2024; 2 major hurricanes impacted state

23. New Hampshire

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 9.1%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 4
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $469 million (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting New Hampshire since 1980: 1985, 1999, 2011, 2012; 1 major hurricane impacted state each year

22. Arkansas

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 11.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 5
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $731 million (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Arkansas since 1980: 2008; 2 major hurricanes impacted state

21. Kentucky

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 11.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 5
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $1.6 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Kentucky since 1980: 2024, 2005, 2008, 2021, 2024; 1 major hurricane impacted state each year

20. West Virginia

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 13.6%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 6
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $877 million (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting West Virginia since 1980: 1996, 2003, 2004, 2012, 2021, 2024; 1 major hurricane impacted state each year

19. Ohio

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 15.9%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 7
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $3.9 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Ohio since 1980: 2024; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

18. Delaware

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 18.2%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 8
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $1.0 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Delaware since 1980: 2004; 2 major hurricanes impacted state

17. Rhode Island

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 18.2%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 8
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $1.4 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Rhode Island since 1980: 2021; 2 major hurricanes impacted state

16. Tennessee

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 20.5%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 9
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $2.5 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Tennessee since 1980: 2021; 2 major hurricanes impacted state

15. Massachusetts

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 20.5%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 9
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $3.7 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Massachusetts since 1980: 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

14. Connecticut

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 22.7%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 10
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $6.1 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Connecticut since 1980: 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

13. New Jersey

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 29.5%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 13
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $54.1 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting New Jersey since 1980: 2004, 2011, 2021; 2 major hurricanes impacted state each year

12. Maryland

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 34.1%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 15
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $6.6 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Maryland since 1980: 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

11. Pennsylvania

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 36.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 16
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $12.2 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Pennsylvania since 1980: 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

10. New York

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 36.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 16
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $69.7 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting New York since 1980: 2004, 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state each year

9. Texas

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 36.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 16
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $250.4 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Texas since 1980: 2020; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

8. Mississippi

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 50.0%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 22
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $62.5 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Mississippi since 1980: 2020; 4 major hurricanes impacted state

7. Virginia

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 52.3%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 23
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $11.3 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Virginia since 1980: 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state

6. South Carolina

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 56.8%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 25
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $29.2 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting South Carolina since 1980: 2020; 5 major hurricanes impacted state

5. Alabama

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 59.1%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 26
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $27.5 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Alabama since 1980: 2005, 2020, 2021; 3 major hurricanes impacted state each year

4. Georgia

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 61.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 27
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $33.4 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Georgia since 1980: 2020; 5 major hurricanes impacted state

3. Louisiana

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 61.4%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 27
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $273.5 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Louisiana since 1980: 2020; 4 major hurricanes impacted state

2. North Carolina

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 70.5%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 31
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $114.4 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting North Carolina since 1980: 2004, 2020; 4 major hurricanes impacted state

1. Florida

Chance of being impacted by a major destructive hurricane in 2025: 81.8%
Number of major hurricanes impacting the state since 1980: 36
Total destruction from major hurricanes in state since 1980: $426.8 billion (inflation adjusted)
Year(s) with the most major hurricanes impacting Florida since 1980: 2004, 2005, 2021, 2024; 4 major hurricanes impacted state each year

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