Still Recovering From Last Week’s Disaster: These Counties Now Face a New Tornado Threat
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/07221730/Probability-of-tornado-May-21-150x150.pngLast week, an outbreak of tornadoes swept through the South and Midwest, damaging thousands of homes and businesses and resulting in at least 28 deaths. While many hard-hit communities are just beginning to sort through the wreckage of last week’s storm, a new tornado threat is forming in the middle of the country.
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There are currently 386 counties under a tornado watch or warning issued by the NWS, representing over 17 million Americans. Some 231 counties face a 10% chance of experiencing a tornado on May 21, with a non-zero chance of tornadoes extending to over 800 counties. Many of the counties with the highest chance of tornado are the same ones still recovering from last week’s outbreak. A closer look at the data reveals the hardest hit counties that could see another tornado this week.
To determine the hardest hit counties that could get hit with another tornado this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on tornado forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database and Damage Assessment Toolkit of the NOAA. Counties were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a tornado within 25 miles of their border on May 21, 2025. Only counties with at least 40 tornado damage impact score points – a weighted aggregation of the severity of all NOAA damage assessment points within a given county – in the last week were included. Damage severity is the product of the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale value and an NOAA-assigned Degree of Damage (DoD) score. The tornado damage impact score gives greater weight to larger buildings like manufactured homes and family residences that sustained greater degrees of damage, such as complete destruction or collapse of exterior walls. NOAA storm data is for the period May 12 to 19, 2025.
16. Cape Girardeau County, MO
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 82,180
- County seat: Jackson
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 1 small barn or farm outbuilding, 2 one- or two-family residences, 1 manufactured home (single wide), 4 hardwood trees
15. Clark County, IL
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 15,328
- County seat: Marshall
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 2 small barns or farm outbuildings, 3 hardwood trees, 10 softwood trees
14. Ripley County, IN
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 29,039
- County seat: Versailles
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 1 small barn or farm outbuilding, 2 one- or two-family residences, 9 hardwood trees, 10 softwood trees
13. St. Louis County, MO
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 996,618
- County seat: Clayton
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 3 electrical transmission lines, 17 hardwood trees
12. Monroe County, IN
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 139,822
- County seat: Bloomington
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 4 small barns or farm outbuildings, 7 one- or two-family residences, 2 manufactured homes (single wide), 1 motel, 1 small professional building (doctor’s office), 11 hardwood trees
11. Brown County, IN
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 15,543
- County seat: Nashville
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 3 small barns or farm outbuildings, 4 one- or two-family residences, 7 hardwood trees, 1 softwood tree
10. Greene County, IN
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 30,954
- County seat: Bloomfield
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 9 small barns or farm outbuildings, 13 one- or two-family residences, 1 manufactured home (single wide), 2 manufactured homes (double wide), 6 hardwood trees, 1 softwood tree
9. Madison County, IL
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 264,631
- County seat: Edwardsville
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 1 small barn or farm outbuilding, 4 one- or two-family residences, 2 small retail buildings (fast food restaurants), 1 small professional building (doctor’s office), 39 hardwood trees, 8 softwood trees
8. Williamson County, IL
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 66,902
- County seat: Marion
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 10 small barns or farm outbuildings, 29 one- or two-family residences, 1 manufactured home (double wide), 14 hardwood trees, 1 softwood tree
7. St. Louis city, MO
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 5.0%
- Total population: 293,109
- County seat: St. Louis
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 89 one- or two-family residences, 2 apartments, 1 masonry apartment or motel building, 5 small retail buildings (fast food restaurants), 2 small professional buildings (doctor’s offices), 2 strip malls, 7 low-rise buildings (1–4 stories), 3 mid-rise build
6. Scott County, MO
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 8.8%
- Total population: 37,967
- County seat: Benton
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 12 small barns or farm outbuildings, 23 one- or two-family residences, 5 manufactured homes (single wide), 1 manufactured home (double wide), 2 electrical transmission lines, 21 hardwood trees, 1 softwood tree
5. Union County, KY
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 9.2%
- Total population: 13,379
- County seat: Morganfield
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 4 small barns or farm outbuildings, 13 one- or two-family residences, 1 manufactured home (single wide), 2 electrical transmission lines, 10 hardwood trees
4. Todd County, KY
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 10.0%
- Total population: 12,330
- County seat: Elkton
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 3 small barns or farm outbuildings, 1 one- or two-family residence, 2 manufactured homes (single wide), 1 manufactured home (double wide), 5 hardwood trees
3. Christian County, KY
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 10.0%
- Total population: 72,599
- County seat: Hopkinsville
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 7 small barns or farm outbuildings, 8 one- or two-family residences, 3 electrical transmission lines, 17 hardwood trees, 1 softwood tree
2. Russell County, KY
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 10.0%
- Total population: 18,117
- County seat: Jamestown
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 2 small barns or farm outbuildings, 5 one- or two-family residences, 1 manufactured home (single wide), 2 manufactured homes (double wide), 7 hardwood trees
1. Carroll County, MS
- Probability of tornado on May 21, 2025: 10.0%
- Total population: 9,828
- County seat: Carrollton
- Recent tornado property damage, May 12-19: 5 small barns or farm outbuildings, 4 one- or two-family residences, 2 manufactured homes (single wide), 1 metal building system, 1 electrical transmission line, 13 hardwood trees, 43 softwood trees
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