The Cities Where Heat Risk Will Be Highest This Weekend

By Evan Comen • July 11, 2025

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While the heat wave affecting the East Coast subsided through the second half of the week, many Americans are bracing for another round of sweltering temperatures this weekend. In an effort to model heat risk, the National Weather Service publishes a daily HeatRisk forecast, a composite metric measuring temperatures, humidity, duration of heat, and how unusual heat is for the time of year in a given geography.

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Heat risk is forecast to increase slightly over the next few days, concentrated in the Southeast and Gulf Coast. On Friday, 237 counties will have a moderate heat risk, representing close to 32 million Americans. That number will more than double to 540 counties by Saturday, with 57 million Americans exposed to moderate heat risk. Heat risk will continue to rise through the following week, with a handful of communities forecast to experience extreme heat risk come Monday. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest heat risk this weekend.

To determine the cities with the highest heat risk this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score for the period July 11 to 13, 2025. Supplemental data on forecast temperature maximums are from the NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database. Only cities with at least 25,000 residents were considered. Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Altamonte Springs, FL

Photo by David Valentine on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.6/4 (high of 93.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.4/4 (high of 93.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 45,772

24. University, FL

Photo by Mick Haupt on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 93.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.3/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 49,148

23. Dunwoody, GA

Photo by Brett Sayles on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 89.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 91.7°F)
Total population: 51,458

22. Brookhaven, GA

Photo by Pegah Mostafavi Zadeh on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 91.8°F)
Total population: 56,848

21. Greenville, SC

Photo by Jonathan Hanna on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 91.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 94.3°F)
Total population: 70,838

20. Atlanta, GA

Photo by ibuki Tsubo on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 92.1°F)
Total population: 494,838

19. Wake Forest, NC

Photo by A n v e s h on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 87.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.9/4 (high of 89.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.2/4 (high of 90.9°F)
Total population: 48,047

18. Sumter, SC

Photo by Dale Burke on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 91.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 91.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.6/4 (high of 94.2°F)
Total population: 43,046

17. Martinez, GA

Photo by Stephanie Vasquez on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.1/4 (high of 93.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 96.0°F)
Total population: 33,773

16. Hattiesburg, MS

Photo by jplenio on Pixabay

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 93.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 94.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 95.7°F)
Total population: 48,466

15. Augusta, GA

Photo by Luis Morera on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.2/4 (high of 93.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 95.2°F)
Total population: 201,615

14. Durham, NC

Photo by Colin Rowley on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 87.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 89.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 91.3°F)
Total population: 284,094

13. Raleigh, NC

Photo by Gene Gallin on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.1/4 (high of 88.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 90.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 91.8°F)
Total population: 465,517

12. Oakleaf Plantation, FL

Photo by Lily Astacio on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 93.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.8/4 (high of 96.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 96.4°F)
Total population: 29,265

11. Morrisville, NC

Photo by Dana Bethea on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 89.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.3/4 (high of 90.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 92.4°F)
Total population: 29,756

10. Binghamton, NY

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 1.9/4 (high of 86.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 86.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.9/4 (high of 89.8°F)
Total population: 47,617

9. DeLand, FL

Photo by Mick Haupt on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 93.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.5/4 (high of 94.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.4/4 (high of 94.1°F)
Total population: 38,392

8. Spartanburg, SC

Photo by Zac Gudakov on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 91.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.9/4 (high of 94.1°F)
Total population: 38,301

7. Northdale, FL

Photo by Kate on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.8/4 (high of 94.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 2.8/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 26,079

6. Redan, GA

Photo by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 90.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.6/4 (high of 90.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 93.3°F)
Total population: 31,326

5. Medford, OR

Photo by Clay Elliot on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.7/4 (high of 96.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 100.7°F)
Total population: 85,539

4. Gainesville, GA

Photo by Pao Dayag on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 89.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 2.8/4 (high of 89.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 92.0°F)
Total population: 42,780

3. Lake Magdalene, FL

Photo by Jose Valverde on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.0/4 (high of 92.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 93.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 31,546

2. Tallahassee, FL

Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.9/4 (high of 92.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 94.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 95.0°F)
Total population: 198,259

1. Valdosta, GA

Photo by Clare Tallamy on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 11, 2025: 2.9/4 (high of 93.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 12, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 94.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 13, 2025: 3.0/4 (high of 96.0°F)
Total population: 55,266

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