The Derecho Storm System That Killed Three Is on the Move: These Are The Cities In Its Path
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07223644/severe_weather_map_4.30-150x150.pngOn Tuesday, a long arc of damaging windstorms – a derecho stretching roughly 450 miles – swept from Illinois to New York, leaving 500,000 residents without power and causing at least three fatalities.
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Now the storm system is on the move, with a wave of severe weather forecast for the central United States. Severe thunderstorms are forecast for a stretch of country spanning more than 30 million Americans, while several cities in Texas have at least a 10% chance of a tornado. A closer look at the data reveals the cities most at risk of severe weather in the next 48 hours.
To determine the cities most in the path of severe weather Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on severe thunderstorm, thunderstorm winds, and tornado probability forecasts from the National Weather Service of the NOAA. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing a severe thunderstorm, thunderstorm wind event, or tornado within 25 miles of their border from May 1 to May 2, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.
25. Clarksville, TN
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 2.0%
- Value of all homes: $8.2 billion
- Total population: 167,882
24. Louisville, KY
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 2.0%
- Value of all homes: $41.8 billion
- Total population: 629,176
23. Memphis, TN
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 2.0%
- Value of all homes: $24.8 billion
- Total population: 630,027
22. Austin, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 2.0%
- Value of all homes: $108.1 billion
- Total population: 958,202
21. Dallas, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.1%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 25.3%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 8.6%
- Value of all homes: $91.6 billion
- Total population: 1,300,642
20. Carrollton, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 3.8%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Value of all homes: $10.4 billion
- Total population: 132,284
19. Columbus, IN
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 2.6%
- Value of all homes: $3.4 billion
- Total population: 50,896
18. Bossier City, LA
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 3.4%
- Value of all homes: $2.7 billion
- Total population: 62,971
17. Euless, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 3.5%
- Value of all homes: $2.9 billion
- Total population: 60,360
16. North Little Rock, AR
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 3.9%
- Value of all homes: $2.4 billion
- Total population: 64,454
15. Wylie, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 28.8%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 9.6%
- Value of all homes: $4.7 billion
- Total population: 57,063
14. Shreveport, LA
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 4.2%
- Value of all homes: $9.0 billion
- Total population: 186,183
13. Mansfield, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 3.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 8.3%
- Value of all homes: $6.4 billion
- Total population: 73,680
12. Arlington, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 4.9%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 4.9%
- Value of all homes: $21.0 billion
- Total population: 393,469
11. Little Rock, AR
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 4.8%
- Value of all homes: $13.0 billion
- Total population: 202,218
10. DeSoto, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.8 billion
- Total population: 55,882
9. Terre Haute, IN
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Value of all homes: $1.7 billion
- Total population: 58,599
8. Rowlett, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $5.7 billion
- Total population: 63,291
7. Conway, AR
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.1 billion
- Total population: 65,159
6. Bloomington, IN
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.5 billion
- Total population: 79,006
5. Mesquite, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $6.8 billion
- Total population: 149,439
4. Garland, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 0.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $12.5 billion
- Total population: 244,026
3. Waco, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 15.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 5.1%
- Value of all homes: $5.5 billion
- Total population: 140,545
2. Longview, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $3.3 billion
- Total population: 82,176
1. Tyler, TX
- Chance of severe thunderstorm in next 48 hours: 5.0%
- Chance of thunderstorm winds in next 48 hours: 30.0%
- Chance of tornado in next 48 hours: 10.0%
- Value of all homes: $5.4 billion
- Total population: 106,440
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