Here is Where Flood Risk is Skyrocketing

Road closed sign amidst flooded street, reflecting calm water and trees.

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Average global temperatures have climbed substantially in recent years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, each of the 10 hottest years on record were reported in the last decade, including 2024, which currently stands as the hottest year since at least 1850. This warning trend is projected to continue in the foreseeable future, and higher temperatures will have many, predictable, knock-on effects – not the least of which is increased risk of catastrophic flooding in much of the world, including parts of the United States.

Rising global temperatures accelerate glacial melt and fuel stronger and more frequent hurricanes. In coastal communities, these factors raise the risk of flooding by contributing to sea level rise and increased likelihood of hurricane storm surges. Higher temperatures also drive up the rate at which moisture evaporates, which can result in denser clouds and heavier precipitation, posing additional risk to homes and businesses located along rivers and streams.

A 2020 report from the non-profit climate-risk research organization First Street Foundation found that there are nearly 14.6 million American homes and businesses – or about 10.3% of properties nationwide – at substantial risk of flooding, defined as having a greater than 26% chance of flooding at least once every 30 years. The same report, which analyzed federal and local government data, as well as estimates from the World Climate Research Programme, estimates that by the year 2050, the number of properties facing substantial flood risk in the U.S. will top 16.2 million – an 11.2% increase from current levels.

Of course, while climate change is a global phenomenon, exposure to potential floods also hinges largely on multiple geographic and topographic factors, including elevation and proximity to bodies of water. Partially as a result, the places facing increased flood risk in the U.S. in the coming decades are disproportionately concentrated in certain parts of the country.

Using data published by First Street, Climate Crisis 247 identified the states where flood risk is expected to skyrocket. States are ranked on the percent change in the number of properties exposed to substantial flood risk from 2020 to 2050. Only the 12 states with the largest increase were considered in this story.

Among the states on this list, the number of properties at substantial flood risk is projected to increase by anywhere from 11.4% to 69.7% between 2020 and 2050. Each of these states is located along the Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast, or both.

It is important to note that these 12 states are only those where flood risk is expected to rise the most by 2050, and are not necessarily those in which the largest share of residents are, or will soon be, at substantial flood risk. In Maryland, for example, only 6.2% of properties were considered to be at substantial flood risk in 2020, well below the 10.3% share of properties nationwide. Even though the number of homes and businesses in Maryland facing substantial flood risk is projected to grow nearly 15% by 2050, one of the largest increases of any state, high flood-risk properties are expected to account for just 7.1% of properties statewide in 2050 – well below the 11.4% share nationwide.

12. Massachusetts

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +11.4% (+22,100 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 193,300 (8.9%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 215,400 (10.0%)

11. New York

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +11.9% (+73,300 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 615,500 (11.5%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 688,800 (12.9%)

10. North Carolina

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +12.1% (+65,100 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 538,900 (10.0%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 604,000 (11.2%)

9. Virginia

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +13.2% (+45,300 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 344,400 (9.1%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 389,700 (10.3%)

8. Rhode Island

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +14.7% (+3,900 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 26,500 (6.9%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 30,400 (7.9%)

7. Maryland

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +14.8% (+19,800 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 133,700 (6.2%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 153,500 (7.1%)

6. Texas

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +15.7% (+180,000 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 1,150,000 (9.5%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 1,330,000 (11.0%)

5. South Carolina

*Photo by Johannes Beilharz on Unsplash*

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +16.7% (+45,400 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 271,500 (10.6%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 316,900 (12.4%)

4. New Jersey

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +19.1% (+73,600 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 385,400 (11.2%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 459,000 (13.3%)

3. Delaware

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +20.9% (+8,300 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 39,700 (9.4%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 48,000 (11.3%)

2. Florida

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +22.2% (+400,000 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 1,800,000 (20.5%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 2,200,000 (24.3%)

1. Louisiana

Projected 30-year change in number of properties at substantial flood risk: +69.7% (+332,700 properties)
Properties at substantial flood risk in 2020: 477,100 (21.1%)
Projected properties at substantial flood risk in 2050: 809,800 (35.8%)