These Cities Will Spend More Than Half the Year in Drought by 2040

Vast territory of dried soil with contemporary buildings and skyscrapers on background on cloudy sunny day

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In one of the worst national droughts in recorded history, more than 20% of the U.S. has been in moderate to exceptional drought for the bulk of 2024. By mid-November, 88% of the contiguous U.S. was abnormally dry, the largest share since the U.S. Drought Monitor began tracking national drought conditions in 1999.

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As the planet warms, drought is becoming more common. When global temperatures reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial baselines – a threshold the scientific community generally agrees the Earth will pass by 2040 – the average number of days spent in drought in major cities around the world will rise from 15.98 days per year to 17.33 days per year, according to analysis from the World Resources Institute. A closer look at the data reveals the cities that will spend the most time in drought by 2040.

To determine the cities that will spend the most time in drought by 2040, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on climate hazards and global warming scenarios from the World Resources Institute. The world’s 996 most populous cities were ranked based on the projected number of days cities will spend with a Standardized Precipitation Index score below -1 – a common measure of drought – in a global warming scenario of 1.5°C above pre-industrial baseline, a threshold most expert models project the world will cross by 2040. Baselines used to compare future annual drought days to historical normals are based on Standardized Precipitation Index data for 1995 through 2014. Supplemental data on the projected number of days during which high temperatures will reach 95°F and when high temperatures will exceed the local 95th percentile for daily high temperature – a measure of heat wave frequency – is also from the WRI.

25. Baku, Azerbaijan

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 195 days (+29 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 0 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 58 days
Total population: 1,934,350

24. San Antonio, TX, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 199 days (+34 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 67 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 64 days
Total population: 1,792,822

23. Linfen, China

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 200 days (+10 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 6 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 48 days
Total population: 824,997

22. Luoyang, China

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 200 days (-11 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 15 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 47 days
Total population: 1,777,024

21. Kabul, Afghanistan

*Pexels / Photo by Abdul Naser Sahebzada*

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 200 days (+47 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 0 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 58 days
Total population: 5,026,504

20. Amritsar, India

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 201 days (+29 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 105 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 40 days
Total population: 1,306,213

19. Casablanca, Morocco

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 202 days (-17 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 0 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 67 days
Total population: 4,248,986

18. Jining, China

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 202 days (+32 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 13 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 50 days
Total population: 787,923

17. Lisbon, Portugal

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 203 days (+61 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 0 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 44 days
Total population: 2,094,674

16. Rosario, Argentina

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 207 days (-6 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 18 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 54 days
Total population: 1,250,109

15. Chihuahua, Mexico

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 208 days (+9 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 9 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 38 days
Total population: 761,998

14. Austin, TX, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 210 days (+47 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 39 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 32 days
Total population: 1,395,285

13. Los Angeles, CA, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 211 days (-6 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 10 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 23 days
Total population: 14,811,961

12. Jinan, China

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 212 days (+34 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 12 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 50 days
Total population: 3,722,485

11. Rabat, Morocco

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 217 days (+10 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 1 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 37 days
Total population: 2,016,619

10. Shiraz, Iran

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 218 days (+1 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 68 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 57 days
Total population: 896,516

9. Quetta, Pakistan

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 218 days (-23 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 16 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 53 days
Total population: 791,126

8. Albuquerque, NM, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 226 days (+31 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 16 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 58 days
Total population: 774,495

7. Multan, Pakistan

*Pexels / Photo by Younus Sahil Official*

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 229 days (+40 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 178 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 44 days
Total population: 2,817,134

6. Hermosillo, Mexico

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 230 days (+16 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 144 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 47 days
Total population: 740,517

5. Concepción, Chile

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 231 days (-3 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 0 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 91 days
Total population: 587,803

4. Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 231 days (+13 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 68 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 51 days
Total population: 1,709,629

3. Bakersfield, CA, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 235 days (-24 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 71 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 37 days
Total population: 613,876

2. Fresno, CA, United States

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 240 days (-41 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 70 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 42 days
Total population: 719,313

1. Yazd, Iran

Projected days of annual drought by 2040: 241 days (+31 days from historical baseline)
Projected days of high temperatures above 95°F by 2040: 72 days
Projected days of heat wave by 2040: 48 days
Total population: 434,844