These Places Have The Highest Risk of a Major Wildfire in 2025

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The effects of climate change have become increasingly apparent in recent decades – with rising average temperatures and droughts occurring with greater frequency and intensity. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, each of the 10 hottest years on record were reported in the last decade, including 2024, which currently stands as the hottest year since at least 1850. Additionally, the United States has been impacted by an average of one major, destructive drought in each of the last five years, nearly double the average throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

Hotter temperatures and drought, while harmful on their own, are also leading risk factors for yet another type of natural disaster: wildfire. Prolonged droughts can be fatal for a wide variety of plant species, and when compounded by severe heat, which saps moisture from soil and plants, forests become especially susceptible to wildfires. Perhaps not surprisingly, the threat posed by wildfires has grown substantially in recent years across North America.

As recently as 2023, over 71,400 square miles of Canadian forest were consumed by wildfires – more than the entire land area of New England, and more than double the previous record set in 1989, when 28,500 square miles of Canadian wilderness were destroyed by fire. In the United States, meanwhile, there have been four major wildfires that resulted in over $10 billion in damage since 1980 – and all of them occurred within the last eight years.

Whether, and to what degree, the U.S. is impacted by major wildfires again in 2025 remains to be seen, but an analysis of historical data shows that certain parts of the country are at greater risk than others.

Climate Crisis 247 identified the 16 states at highest risk of a major wildfire in 2025. Wildfire risk was calculated by taking the total number of major wildfire events – those resulting in at least $1 billion in damage – that have impacted each state since 1980, and dividing that number by 44, the number years of available historical data. Only states determined to have a greater than 5% chance of being impacted by a major wildfire in 2025 were included in this analysis. All data in this story, including supplemental data, are from NOAA. All risk calculations in this story are based on historical patterns only.

Half of the 50 states have been impacted by a major wildfire in the last 44 years. Of those 25 states, 16 have been meaningfully impacted by at least three major wildfire events, and four have been hit by 15 or or more billion-dollar wildfires.

Among the 16 states on this list, the calculated odds of a major wildfire in 2025 ranges from 6.8% to 43.2%. These states include several in the Southeast as well as the Southwest, but the states at highest risk are concentrated along the Pacific coast. Notably, Alaska is the only state outside of the Lower 48 to appear on this list, even though, as recently as August 2023, Hawaii suffered through one of most destructive wildfires in U.S. history.

It is important to note that these projections may, if anything, underestimate wildfire risk in 2025, as wildfires have become more severe and more common in recent years, and the calculations used in this story are based on historical data going back to 1980.

16. Georgia

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 6.8%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 3
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $298.2 million (inflation adjusted)

15. Florida

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 9.1%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 4
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $309.9 million (inflation adjusted)

14. Oklahoma

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 13.6%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 6
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $352.4 million (inflation adjusted)

13. Texas

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 15.9%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 7
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $3.2 billion (inflation adjusted)

12. Alaska

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 18.2%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 8
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $2.4 billion (inflation adjusted)

11. Wyoming

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 20.5%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 9
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $1.1 billion (inflation adjusted)

10. Utah

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 22.7%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 10
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $1.4 billion (inflation adjusted)

9. Nevada

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 25.0%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 11
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $1.3 billion (inflation adjusted)

8. Colorado

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 27.3%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 12
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $7.3 billion (inflation adjusted)

7. New Mexico

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 27.3%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 12
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $4.6 billion (inflation adjusted)

6. Montana

*Photo by Michael Bourgault on Unsplash*

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 31.8%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 14
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $3.5 billion (inflation adjusted)

5. Arizona

*Photo by Strange Happenings on Unsplash*

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 31.8%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 14
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $1.4 billion (inflation adjusted)

4. Idaho

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 34.1%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 15
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $3.6 billion (inflation adjusted)

3. Washington

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 34.1%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 15
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $3.1 billion (inflation adjusted)

2. Oregon

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 36.4%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 16
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $6.0 billion (inflation adjusted)

1. California

Chance of being impacted by a major, destructive wildfire in 2025: 43.2%
Number of major wildfires impacting the state since 1980: 19
Total destruction from major wildfires in state since 1980: $101.4 billion (inflation adjusted)

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