Which U.S. Cities Will Become Deserts by 2080? New Study Sheds Light

By Evan Comen  •  September 16, 2025
A picturesque autumn roadside scene with an auto rickshaw and tall trees.https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/29701610-150x150.jpeg

In a new study in PeerJ, scientists with the Open Earth Monitor Cyberinfrastructure project harnessed high-resolution datasets and machine learning models to forecast how natural vegetation zones – or biomes – are projected to shift by 2080 under various climate scenarios.

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Research results show that the distribution of biomes in the United States will undergo major shifts in the coming decades. The central United States will turn warmer and more arid, with the cool mixed forests in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin giving way to the dry, grassy steppe of the Great Plains states. Steppe landscapes are forecast to spread the fastest, while evergreen needleleaf forests and temperate deciduous broadleaf forests will contract considerably.

By century’s end, many of the country’s most populous metro areas – including Reno, Los Angeles, and Seattle – will completely transition to new biome types. Evergreen forests will turn to steppe, while steppe will turn to desert. A closer look at the data reveals the cities projected to undergo the greatest biome transformations in the next 50 years.

To determine the cities with changing biomes, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed spatial data from the April 2023 paper Current and future global distribution of potential biomes under climate change scenarios, published in PeerJ. Cities were ranked based on the degree of change from dominant biome type from a 1979-2013 baseline to a forecasted 2061-2080 scenario, based on the BIOME 6000 classification scheme. Forecast changes to biome landscape classification are based on RCP 8.5 scenario, or high emissions. Analysis was done in QGIS using raster data and zonal statistics. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered.

25. San Francisco, CA

Photo by Braden Collum on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Current population: 851,036
 

24. Aurora, CO

Photo by Acton Crawford on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 387,349
 

23. Fresno, CA

Photo by Kellen Riggin on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 541,528
 

22. Denver, CO

Photo by Acton Crawford on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 710,800
 

21. Anchorage, AK

Photo by Simon Hurry on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Low and high shrub tundra
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Current population: 290,674
 

20. Miami, FL

Photo by Shawn Henley on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 443,665
 

19. Reno, NV

Photo by Daniel Akre on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
  • Current population: 265,196
 

18. Bakersfield, CA

Photo by Fabio Sasso on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
  • Current population: 404,321
 

17. Tulsa, OK

Photo by Sam Coin on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 411,938
 

16. Virginia Beach, VA

Photo by Daniel Halseth on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 457,900
 

15. Louisville, KY

Photo by Miles Manwaring on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 629,176
 

14. Nashville, TN

Photo by Mike Gattorna on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 684,103
 

13. Buffalo, NY

Photo by Shamir Hunley on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 276,688
 

12. Corpus Christi, TX

Photo by Hameen Reynolds on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 317,804
 

11. Cleveland, OH

Photo by DJ Johnson on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 370,365
 

10. Boston, MA

Photo by Jimmy Woo on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 665,945
 

9. San Antonio, TX

Photo by Shelly Collins on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Steppe
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 1,445,662
 

8. Irvine, CA

Photo by Jim Strasma on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 304,527
 

7. Santa Ana, CA

Photo by Sudhan Chitgopkar on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 311,379
 

6. Anaheim, CA

Photo by Cody Board on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 347,111
 

5. Long Beach, CA

Photo by Abin Thomas on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 462,293
 

4. Sacramento, CA

Photo by Leo_Visions on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 523,600
 

3. Los Angeles, CA

Photo by izayah ramos on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 3,881,041
 

2. Portland, OR

Photo by Brandon DesJarlais on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 646,101
 

1. Seattle, WA

Photo by Robert Ritchie on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 734,603
 

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