10 Competitive House Races Where Utility Bills Have Surged

In the 2024 election, the Republican Party gained control of Capitol Hill and the White House, partly on widespread discontent over historic inflation and the rising cost of living. Now, nearly two years later, the affordability crisis has spread to the energy sector and the Consumer Price Index remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate–and the latest polling has fueled expectations for a backlash against incumbent candidates on Election Day.

Amid the data center construction boom and the ongoing war in Iran, energy prices have spiked in recent months. A single data center can consume as much energy as an entire city, and as tech giants continue to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in their construction, electricity demand is surging and so are household utility bills. In addition, due to disruptions to the global oil supply linked to the war in Iran, the average retail price of a gallon of gasoline has been above $4 nearly every week since March, and the price of diesel recently hit an all-time high of $6.53 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

It is perhaps no surprise that 54% of Americans say that U.S. energy policy is very important to their vote ahead of the midterm elections, according to the Pew Research Center. A recent study published by Electricity Price Hub, a utility rate database maintained in collaboration between Heatmap, MIT, and the Clean Economy Project, looked at the potential link between rising energy costs and anti-incumbent sentiment in certain parts of the country. According to the study’s findings, in many congressional districts where electricity prices are up significantly, representatives running for re-election are facing an uphill battle. 

Using data from Electricity Price Hub, Climate Crisis 247 identified the most competitive House races where utility bills have surged. We reviewed all congressional districts with available data that are either rated as either a toss-up or where voters may be turning away from the incumbent party, and ranked them on the change in the average monthly utility bill between September 2024 and September 2026. Only the 10 districts where utility costs are up the most are listed. Ratings for congressional district races are from The Cook Political Report and are as reported by Electricity Price Hub. All other supplemental data is from the Utility Price Hub. 

10. Iowa’s 1st Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +24% (+$31)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $158
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $127
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Leaning Democratic

9. Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +24% (+$30)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $155
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $125
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Zach Nunn (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Leaning Democratic

8. Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +28% (+$34)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $156
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $122
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Toss Up

7. New York’s 17th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +31% (+$50)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $212
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $161
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Toss Up

6. Colorado’s 8th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +32% (+$36)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $148
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $112
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Gabe Evans (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Toss Up

5. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +33% (+$39)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $159
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $120
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Toss Up

4. New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +35% (+$40)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $155
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $115
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Leaning Democratic

3. Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +46% (+$58)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $186
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $128
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Toss Up

2. Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +53% (+$71)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $203
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $132
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Leaning Democratic

1. Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District

• 2-year change in average local residential electricity bill: +61% (+$76)
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2026: $202
• Average local residential electricity bill in September 2024: $126
• Incumbent congressional representative: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
• 2026 House race rating from The Cook Political Report: Leaning Democratic

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