Cities Where Climate Change May Be Driving Gun Violence

By Sam Stebbins  •  October 30, 2026
Focus on a bullet with a blurred pistol in the background, highlighting firearm accessories.
Photo by Enrico Hänel on Pexels

Violent crime rates have been trending downward in the United States for decades. Between 1994 and 2024, rates of violent victimization fell from 80 victims for every 1,000 people to just 23 per 1,000, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. But today, as in past years, rates of certain violent crimes–particularly shootings–tend to spike in warmer weather associated with the summer months. In the era of climate change, rising temperatures appear to be contributing to an increase in violent shootings. 

A recent study published by Climate Central, a non-profit research and advocacy organization, analyzed shooting incidents and climate data in 100 major U.S. cities. In those cities, there were a total of 116,281 documented shootings between 2021 and 2025, and according to the study, about 2% of those shootings–or 1,946 incidents–were attributable to human-caused climate warming. 

Accounting for population, the average rate of gun violence attributable to climate change between 2021 and 2025 was about 3.3 shootings for every 100,000 people. However, in certain cities–particularly those where gun violence is more common in general–rates of shootings linked to climate change are many times higher than the overall average rate. 

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified the cities with the highest rates of gun violence caused by climate change. We ranked all 100 cities with available data on the number of shootings linked to warming from human-caused climate change for every 100,000 people. Only the 10 cities with the highest climate-related shooting rates are listed. All supplemental data is also from Climate Central. 

photography of smoke coming out from tower during daytime
Photo by Ella Ivanescu on Unsplash

10. Detroit, Michigan

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 9.7 per 100,000 people (62 total; 2.1% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 470.0 per 100,000 people (3,004 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 59.7°F (2.5°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 639,111

9. Chicago, Illinois

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 11.2 per 100,000 people (309 total; 2.4% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 464.8 per 100,000 people (12,764 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 59.9°F (2.1°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 2,746,388

8. Milwaukee, Wisconsin

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 12.2 per 100,000 people (71 total; 1.7% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 695.6 per 100,000 people (4,015 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 56.2°F (2.0°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 577,222

7. Wilmington, Delaware

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 12.3 per 100,000 people (9 total; 1.8% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 668.6 per 100,000 people (474 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 65.4°F (2.7°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 70,898

6. Baltimore, Maryland

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 12.3 per 100,000 people (72 total; 2.2% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 563.9 per 100,000 people (3,303 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 64.1°F (2.7°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 585,708

5. Cleveland, Ohio

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 12.3 per 100,000 people (46 total; 2.4% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 506.1 per 100,000 people (1,886 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 59.7°F (2.4°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 372,624

4. Youngstown, Ohio

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 12.8 per 100,000 people (8 total; 2.3% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 556.0 per 100,000 people (334 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 61.7°F (2.5°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 60,068

3. Louisville, Kentucky

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 13.5 per 100,000 people (33 total; 1.8% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 767.0 per 100,000 people (1,888 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 67.7°F (2.3°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 246,161

2. Rochester, New York

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 15.8 per 100,000 people (33 total; 2.7% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 573.5 per 100,000 people (1,212 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 56.3°F (2.4°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 211,328

1. Decatur, Georgia

  • Shootings attributable to human-caused climate warming, 2021-2025: 17.9 per 100,000 people (4 total; 1.3% of all shootings)
  • Total documented shootings, 2021-2025: 1,343.9 per 100,000 people (335 total)
  • Average annual high temperature in city, 2021-2025: 73.1°F (2.4°F added by human-caused climate change)
  • Local population: 24,928

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