Major Cities Most Likely to Have a White Christmas This Year

In much of the country, snowfall is a regular occurrence in the winter months. According to the Federal Highway Administration, nearly 70% of the U.S. population live in regions that receive over five inches of snow each year. Despite predictable levels of snowfall, however, many of these same places often have little or no snow accumulation on Christmas Day.

The meteorological winter in the United States extends from the beginning of December to the end of February – and during that period, December stands out as the month with the lowest volume of snowfall. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that the 56 largest U.S. metro areas receive a cumulative average of about 309 inches of snow in the month of January and nearly 271 inches in February. Meanwhile, December snowfall has historically totalled less than 225 inches in these same places.

Still, historical records suggest that some major U.S. cities are far more likely to have a white Christmas in 2025 than others.

Using data from NOAA, Climate Crisis 247 identified the American cities that are most likely to have a white Christmas. The cities on this list are ranked on the percent chance of having at least one inch of snow accumulation on Christmas day in any given year. Probabilities were calculated by NOAA using historical snow accumulation data over the 30 year period from 1991 to 2020. Only the 10 U.S. cities and urban areas with the greatest likelihood of a white Christmas, and populations of at least 250,000, rank on this list. Population data are five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. Supplemental data on average December temperatures and snowfall are also from NOAA.

Among the 10 major cities and urban areas on this list, the odds of at least one inch of snow depth on Christmas Day range from 32.6% to 93.7%. Notably, there are only four U.S. cities that are home to at least a quarter of a million people and have a greater than 50% chance of a white Christmas. These cities are disproportionately concentrated in the Midwest, though two are in the Northeast and one is in Alaska.

10. Omaha, Nebraska

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 32.6%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 5.8 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 28.7°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 982.0 feet above sea level
• City population: 488,197

9. Chicago, Illinois

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 33.5%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 7.6 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 30.5°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 658.1 feet above sea level
• City population: 2,707,648

8. Detroit, Michigan

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 34.7%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 8.9 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 31.3°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 630.9 feet above sea level
• City population: 636,644

7. Boston, Massachusetts

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 35.0%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 12.8 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 32.7°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 625.0 feet above sea level
• City population: 663,972

6. Cleveland, Ohio

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 39.7%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 12.2 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 34.3°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 763.1 feet above sea level
• City population: 367,523

5. Milwaukee, Wisconsin

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 42.9%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 10.4 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 29.5°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 669.9 feet above sea level
• City population: 569,756

4. Buffalo, New York

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 52.7%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 25.3 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 31.4°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 692.9 feet above sea level
• City population: 276,397

3. Madison, Wisconsin

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 59.8%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 12.0 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 25.3°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 866.1 feet above sea level
• City population: 275,568

2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 73.6%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 11.4 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 22.0°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 872.0 feet above sea level
• City population: 734,607

1. Anchorage, Alaska

• Historical probability of having at least 1 inch of snow cover on Christmas: 93.7%
• Avg. December snowfall reported at local weather station: 18.2 inches
• Avg. December temperature reported at local weather station: 19.4°F
• Elevation of local weather station: 120.1 feet above sea level
• City population: 289,069