Sea Level Rise Will Cost These U.S. Cities Billions by 2040

In the era of climate change, as rising temperatures drive glacial melt and ocean-water expansion, sea level rise is a virtual guarantee in the coming decades. Already, sea levels along much of the U.S. coastline are more than six inches higher now than they were in the early 20th century—and in many of those same places, sea-levels are projected to rise more than a foot within the next 15 years. 

In recognition of the challenges and potential devastation these changes may bring, some parts of the country are actively altering their coastlines to protect lives and property. From Miami Beach to Atlantic City, New Jersey, and from San Francisco to Charleston, South Carolina, coastal communities are investing in protective seawalls—or stone retaining walls installed along the coast—to reduce the likelihood and impact of ocean-water flooding. 

While seawalls are a practical means of mitigating a direct consequence of climate change, they come at a steep cost. According to a study from the Center for Climate Integrity, protecting coastal communities from the levels of sea-level rise projected by 2040 will require hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure projects. For the state of Florida alone, seawalls adequate to defend against future sea-level rise will cost an estimated $75.9 billion. In many at-risk coastal cities that choose to mitigate the threat of rising waters with seawalls, taxpayers will likely be on the hook. 

Using data from the Center for Climate Integrity, Climate Crisis 247 identified the U.S. cities that will have to spend the most to protect against sea-level rise. We ranked all coastal cities with available data on the estimated cost of seawalls necessary to protect against sea-level rise by 2040. Supplemental data on projected and historic sea level rise is from the Coastal Risk Finder. All other data is from the Center for Climate Integrity. 

10. Barnstable, Massachusetts

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $889.2 million
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 63 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 10.3 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1933: 4.7 inches

9. Tampa, Florida

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $938.4 million
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 64 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 8.8 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1948: 4.6 inches

8. Bolivar Peninsula, Texas

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $966.9 million
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 83 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 14.4 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1904: 6.5 inches

7. Charleston, South Carolina

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $1.0 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 194 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 9.7 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1901: 6.3 inches

6. Galveston, Texas

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $1.1 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 133 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 14.4 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1904: 6.5 inches

5. Fire Island, New York

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $1.4 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 52 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 10.6 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1949: 4.0 inches

4. Marathon, Florida

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $1.5 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 80 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 8.5 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1977: 3.5 inches

3. Virginia Beach, Virginia

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $1.7 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 255 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 11.6 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1928: 5.2 inches

2. New York, New York

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $2.0 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 171 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 10.7 inches
• Local sea level rise since 1928: 5.0 inches

1. Jacksonville, Florida

• Estimated cost of protective seawalls by 2040: $3.5 billion
• Total length of seawalls needed in city: 632 miles
• Projected sea level rise in city by 2040: 8.5 inches
• Local sea level rise since 2001: 2.2 inches