sea rise Predictions At the gulf coast & Its Economic impact

By Sam Stebbins  •  February 18, 2026
aerial photograph of city
Photo by Joe Ciciarelli on Unsplash

One of the most certain and intractable problems associated with climate change is sea level rise. According to a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average global sea levels rose by as much as 5.9 inches between 1971 and 2018, and by between 6 inches and 10 inches since 1900. IPCC projections indicate this trend will continue in the coming decades, with oceans rising at least another 4 inches by 2050. 

Changes to water levels, both past and future, are inextricably linked to Earth’s warming atmosphere. As global temperatures steadily rise, glaciers and ice sheets are rapidly melting. Additionally, higher temperatures cause seawater to expand. This trend will threaten coastal communities and economies across the globe in the coming decades – including those in the United States, a country with over 95,400 miles of coastline. 

From the Pacific to the Atlantic, and the Hawaiian Islands up to Northern Alaska, sea-levels along the U.S. coast are projected to rise by a minimum of 4 inches by the year 2050, according to the U.S. Interagency Task Force on Sea Level Change. Certain parts of the country are projected to be hit especially hard in the next quarter century, including the East Coast, where current models show the Atlantic may rise by more than 1 foot. But the most extreme sea-level rise is expected to take place in communities along the Gulf. 

According to the Interagency Task Force, sea levels along the American Gulf Coast are projected to rise by anywhere from 14 to 18 inches by the year 2050. Counties along the Gulf include some of the most populous and economically productive in the United States – and future sea level rise in these areas poses a grave threat to the lives and livelihoods of the more than 16 million Americans who live there.  

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified projected sea level rise in the most populous U.S. counties along the Gulf Coast. For each county, we listed predicted sea-level rise by the year 2050, 2100, and 2150, as well as the land area and number of people expected to be at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050. All projections in this story are based on models that assume pledged commitments to curbing climate change are met, and as a result, they may be underestimated. Supplemental data on population are five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey, and GDP data is current as of 2024, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Counties are listed in ascending order based on population. 

The 10 counties on this list are spread across four states: Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. Collectively, these places generate over $1 trillion in economic activity per year, and are home to 10.7 million people. Coastal sea levels are projected to rise by as much as 1.7 feet in these areas by 2050, and by as much as 6.2 feet in 2150. 

10. Mobile County, Alabama

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.4 ft. by 2100, +3.8 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 45,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 670 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $30.1 billion
  • Total county population: 413,162
  • Largest city in county: Mobile, Alabama

9. Manatee County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.4 ft. by 2100, +3.8 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 9,400 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,200 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $26.3 billion
  • Total county population: 416,020
  • Largest city in county: Bradenton, Florida
a row of multi - colored houses on a beach
Photo by Josh Sorenson on Unsplash

8. Cameron County, Texas 

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +1.1 ft. by 2050, +2.5 ft. by 2100, +4.1 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 13,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 130 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $17.4 billion
  • Total county population: 423,192
  • Largest city in county: Brownsville, Texas

7. Jefferson Parish, Louisiana

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +1.7 ft. by 2050, +4.0 ft. by 2100, +6.2 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 110,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 4,500 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $31.8 billion
  • Total county population: 432,484
  • Largest city in county: Metairie, Louisiana

6. Sarasota County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.4 ft. by 2100, +3.8 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 4,300 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 290 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $35.9 billion
  • Total county population: 449,011
  • Largest city in county: North Port, Florida

5. Pasco County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.3 ft. by 2100, +3.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 8,900 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 120 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $24.2 billion
  • Total county population: 588,758
  • Largest city in county: Zephyrhills, Florida

4. Lee County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.95 ft. by 2050, +2.3 ft. by 2100, +3.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 53,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,000 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $54.2 billion
  • Total county population: 792,692
  • Largest city in county: Cape Coral, Florida

3. Pinellas County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.4 ft. by 2100, +3.8 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 11,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 2,700 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $78.1 billion
  • Total county population: 960,565
  • Largest city in county: St. Petersburg, Florida

2. Hillsborough County, Florida

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.98 ft. by 2050, +2.4 ft. by 2100, +3.8 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 13,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 160 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $152.0 billion
  • Total county population: 1,489,634
  • Largest city in county: Tampa, Florida

1. Harris County, Texas

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +1.4 ft. by 2050, +3.2 ft. by 2100, +5.2 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 5,600 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 420 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $592.8 billion
  • Total county population: 4,758,579
  • Largest city in county: Houston, Texas


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