Should Trump triumph, what to expect for climate-change policy and investing

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(David Callaway is founder and Editor-in-Chief of Callaway Climate Insights. He is the former president of the World Editors Forum, Editor-in-Chief of USA Today and MarketWatch, and CEO of TheStreet Inc. His climate columns have appeared in USA Today, The Independent, and New Thinking magazine).

Former President Donald Trump likes to keep everybody guessing, and
that’s just what U.S. stock market investors can expect from a second
Trump presidency should he win on Nov. 5.

While it’s handy to point to the market gains in his first term from
2016 to 2020, the next four years will be a different era, with global
warming, an AI arms race in tech and an increasingly hostile China
focused on building economic monopolies from South America to Europe,
from clean energy to electric vehicles. All are new challenges from
last time.

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Much has been said about Trump’s potential for tearing down Biden’s
efforts to build a clean tech economy, particularly investments from
the Inflation Reduction Act, which has put tens of millions into U.S.
manufacturers, many in red states.

To Trump, this is not a demolition derby so much as a rebranding
exercise. While he won’t tolerate climate change or environmental,
social and governance (ESG) jargon, he will certainly maintain and
build on manufacturing gains and innovation. Just in the name of
energy security, rather than climate mitigation. In his post-truth
world, energy security IS dealing with climate change.

A boost for oil and gas
Stocks expected to perform well under a Trump presidency include the
oil and gas companies, such as Exxon and Chevron, the
defense companies, such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed
Martin; the banks and tech companies looking for less
regulation, perhaps JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Apple.

Finally, the traditional auto companies, such as Ford and GM
GM, and don’t forget Tesla.

Clean tech will certainly be part of this mix as lower rates for at
least the next few years benefit borrowing costs for young startups
and equipment heavy solar and wind companies. In the name of energy
security, everything goes. Think of GE Vernova or
Constellation Energy. The smaller companies may suffer
from cuts in government subsidies and borrowing programs, but energy
is going to be an issue Trump cannot avoid.

In short, Trump can be expected to cause complete and utter chaos if
he wins, all in the name of building his power. But he’s always been a
fan of business, and fancies himself the ultimate entrepreneur. Those
are two things that investors can definitely count on, if nothing
else. . . .

COMING TOMORROW: A HARRIS PRESIDENCY AND CLIMATE STOCKS