Some Very Good News About Climate Change–Maybe
Scientists believe there is a chance that temperatures will not rise above the 1.5 C set in the Paris Agreement–yet–even if this happened last year and may happen again in 2025. In the Journal Nature, scientists made the case about how to test the 1.5 C mark. Temperatures must stay above that level for several years. Data for a single year is not sufficient.
“The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear.”
What Is The Real Temperature?
Put another way, if temperatures begin to drop worldwide, the disasters forecast to follow rising above the 1.5 C level may not occur. However, based on the slow growth of green energy worldwide and the ongoing use of fossil fuels, it is hard to imagine that this will happen. A rapid change in policy and price, however, is not out of the question.
The only way to reverse global warming may be to react to growing climate catastrophes, which are both more frequent and violent. Even more concerning is the massive population migration that has started from places where the weather is such that some people will not be able to survive. At some point, nations will start to defend their borders from these migrations. Catastrophes at that level may trigger changes in climate policy.
Is The 20-Year Average Important?
Pessimism about reaching climate goals in the Paris Agreement will continue. And they should. Keeping a 20-year average below 1.5 C is a long shot.
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