States on Track for the Warmest Winter in History

In the era of climate change, winter is the fastest warming season for much of the United States. Perhaps at no other time has this pattern been more clearly demonstrated than this winter, as average temperatures across the Western U.S. have surged to all time highs. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration divides the continental U.S. into nine distinct climate regions. According to the latest data, seven of these regions are reporting above-average temperatures this winter – including three that are on track to have their warmest winter since record keeping began in 1895. In these places – the Northwest, Southwest, and West – average temperatures from December 2025 through January 2026 are the highest they have ever been, exceeding the 20th century average for the same two-month period by at least 7°F.

Importantly, the meteorological winter lasts until the end of February, and temperatures in these places could revert to the mean in the coming weeks. But data from early February indicates that normal winter temperatures have yet to arrive. Each of the nine states that make up the Northwestern, Southwestern, and Western climate regions are home to multiple weather stations that have reported record-high daily temperatures between Feb. 1 and Feb. 9, 2026. These states include Oregon, where 163 daily high temperature records were either broken or matched this month, and Idaho, where 187 record-high temperatures have been set. In some cases, new daily highs have broken previous records by double digits. 

Using data from NOAA, Climate Crisis 247 identified the states that are on track to have their warmest winter in history. We reviewed average temperatures so far this winter for each of the nine states located in the three climate regions where average temperatures from December 2025 through January 2026 are the highest they have ever been. Supplemental data on the number of daily highs that were matched or broken in these states between Feb. 1 and Feb. 9, 2026 is from NOAA’s Daily Weather Records tool. States are listed in alphabetical order. 

Among the nine states on this list, average temperatures for the first two months of this winter are anywhere from 6.3°F to 9.1°F higher than the local 20th century average for the same two-month period. Whether or not the winter of 2025-2026 will go down as the warmest ever recorded in the states remains to be seen, but so far, record-breaking heat in February 2026 makes such an outcome appear increasingly likely. 

9. Arizona (Southwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 48.0°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 41.1°F (6.9°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 19
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Southwestern climate region: 39.4°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Southwestern climate region: 32.0°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

8. California (Western Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 49.1°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 42.7°F (6.4°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 63
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Western climate region: 44.9°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Western climate region: 37.7°F (7.2°F colder than this winter)

7. Colorado (Southwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 32.1°F (2nd warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 24.5°F (7.6°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 62
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Southwestern climate region: 39.4°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Southwestern climate region: 32.0°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

6. Idaho (Northwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 30.9°F (2nd warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 23.0°F (7.9°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 187
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Northwestern climate region: 35.3°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Northwestern climate region: 27.9°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

5. Nevada (Western Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 38.8°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 30.5°F (8.3°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 60
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Western climate region: 44.9°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Western climate region: 37.7°F (7.2°F colder than this winter)

4. New Mexico (Southwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 40.3°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 34.0°F (6.3°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 4
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Southwestern climate region: 39.4°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Southwestern climate region: 32.0°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

3. Oregon (Northwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 38.6°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 31.0°F (7.6°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 163
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Northwestern climate region: 35.3°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Northwestern climate region: 27.9°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

2. Utah (Southwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 35.3°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 26.2°F (9.1°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 48
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Southwestern climate region: 39.4°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Southwestern climate region: 32.0°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)

1. Washington (Northwestern Climate Region)

• Average temperature, Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 : 36.1°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000: 29.5°F (6.6°F colder than this winter)
• Number of daily-high temp. records broken so far in Feb. 2026: 61
• Average temperature Dec. 2025 – Jan. 2026 in the Northwestern climate region: 35.3°F (the warmest since at least 1895)
• Average temperature, Dec. – Jan. 1901-2000 in the Northwestern climate region: 27.9°F (7.4°F colder than this winter)