These US Counties Prepare for Unseasonably warm Weather; are there wildfire risks?

A burst of unseasonable warmth is set to sweep across the central United States this weekend, pushing temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above typical mid-November norms from the Dakotas to the Ohio River Valley.

While the most pronounced anomalies are expected across the Plains and Upper Midwest, the warm-air surge will spill eastward into parts of the Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes. A ridge in the jet stream parked over the nation’s midsection will deflect colder air northward, allowing early-September-like temperatures to take hold. Meteorologists warn the unusually warm and dry pattern could elevate wildfire danger in areas where vegetation remains stressed from summer heat. A closer look at the data reveals the counties where it will be abnormally warm this week.

To identify the places where it will be unseasonably warm this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed National Weather Service data from the National Digital Forecast Database. Counties were ranked based on the forecast difference between expected high temperatures and the historical average for November 14 to 16 from 1981 to 2010. Only counties with at least 100,000 residents were considered.  Data was aggregated from Global Historical Climatology Network weather stations to places using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau.

10. Hennepin County, MN

Hennepin County is set for a pronounced warm spell, with highs running 13 to 23 degrees above normal through Saturday. Temperatures will peak near 66°F, compared to typical mid-November highs in the low-40s. Though warmth eases Sunday, highs will still remain above average.

9. Ramsey County, MN

Ramsey County will see temperatures 13 to 23 degrees above normal, with highs reaching the mid-60s on Saturday. Average mid-November highs sit around 43°F, putting this weekend’s warmth far outside seasonal norms. Conditions cool slightly by Sunday but remain unseasonably mild.

8. Dakota County, MN

Dakota County is forecast to warm 14 to 23 degrees above normal, topping out near 66–67°F on Saturday. Typical highs this time of year linger in the low-40s. Sunday brings some cooling, though temperatures will still sit well above average.

7. Olmsted County, MN

Olmsted County is expected to see one of the strongest warm anomalies in Minnesota, with highs running 13 to 23 degrees above normal. Saturday’s temperatures could reach the mid-60s, compared to typical highs near 43°F. Sunday cools slightly but remains significantly warmer than seasonal norms.

6. Lancaster County, NE

Lancaster County will experience a major warm surge, with highs reaching 72 to 76°F, roughly 18 to 23 degrees above normal. This level of warmth is more typical of late September. Sunday will still be unusually warm, with highs staying well into the 60s.

5. Minnehaha County, SD

Sioux Falls is on track for temperatures 15 to 24 degrees above normal, with highs near 70°F on Saturday. Mid-November highs are normally in the mid-40s. Cooler air moves in Sunday, but highs will remain noticeably above average.

4. Carver County, MN

Carver County is forecast to warm 15 to 24 degrees above normal, reaching the mid-60s on Saturday. Normal mid-November highs hover around 43°F. Sunday’s temperatures drop but still finish several degrees above seasonal norms.

3. Scott County, MN

Scott County will see highs 15 to 24 degrees above normal, peaking around 67°F on Saturday. Typical highs this time of year are in the low-40s. While Sunday cools slightly, the warm spell continues with highs remaining far above average.

2. St. Louis, MO

St. Louis could see Friday and Saturday highs running 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but Sunday surging to nearly 24 degrees above average. Highs could reach 80°F on Sunday – nearly unprecedented for mid-November.

1. Pennington County, SD

Rapid City is likely to experience the largest temperature spike on the list, with highs ranging 19 to 24 degrees above normal through Saturday. Temperatures will peak in the low-70s, compared to typical highs around 50°F. While Sunday cools sharply, the early-weekend warmth will be exceptionally unusual for this time of year.