Totally Trashed? Collapse of plastics talks heralds end of global climate order

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(David Callaway is founder and Editor-in-Chief of Callaway Climate Insights. He is the former president of the World Editors Forum, Editor-in-Chief of USA Today and MarketWatch, and CEO of TheStreet Inc. His climate columns have appeared in USA Today, The Independent, and New Thinking magazine).

The collapse of global plastic talks in South Korea over the weekend, like the disappointing COP29 climate talks a few weeks before, was frustratingly predictable.

Even though more than 100 countries got behind seemingly obvious plans to cut plastic production to reduce the world’s reliance on the harmful petroleum-based products, a handful of oil states, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, were easily able to block a comprehensive agreement. They argue that reducing plastic pollution, not production, is the answer.

This is shockingly similar to the argument that reducing carbon emissions from oil production should allow for safe scaling of fossil fuels and more energy security. Or that the answer to gun violence is safer, and more, guns. As long as the oil states are allowed to block these agreements, as they did in both Baku at COP29 and now in Busan at the plastic talks, no deal will ever get done.

It’s time for a new world order. And it’s coming whether global leaders like it or not. Unfortunately for U.S entrepreneurs, it’s going to be led by China.

Arms race ahead
Instead of comprehensive global agreements, which to be honest, nobody ever followed even in the rare occasion, like the Paris agreement of 2015, that they occurred, we expect to see countries revert to what they do best: an arms race.

Led by China and other like-minded countries such as Norway, Sweden and Germany, a series of bi-lateral and multi-lateral partnerships will develop around clean energy production and commerce that will essentially cut out the oil states. As these states become more independent, the ones who stuck with fossil fuels will be left behind, which will create friction and violence as global warming bites.

Investment winners and losers
For investors, this will create geo-graphic arbitrage opportunities that will likely speed clean energy ahead at faster rates than any global agreement ever could have. There will be winners and losers. This year’s failed talks, and likely next year’s COP30 in Brazil, will mark the historical turning point where the concept of global cooperation flamed out and a new climate order took its place.

One led by technology, entrepreneurs, and investors, with government support wherever they can get it.