Climate Change Probably Didn’t Kill 4 Million People

Climate Change Probably Won’t Kill 4 Million People This Year

It is called fuzzy science. Take an old forecast model, make some “improvement,” feed in new data, and create an updated conclusion. While climate change, and heat in particular, will kill hundreds of thousands of people this year and perhaps more, a firm prediction is unreliable.

More On Heaths Threat –Climate Danger To Billions Of People

The paper by Colin Carlson, a respected figure in the field, published in Natural Science, is a frequently cited source. “After millions of preventable deaths, climate change must be treated like a health emergency” argues that climate change has more of an effect on mortality rates than previously reported. Carlson puts the figure at 4 million people since 2000. 

Wrong Model

Models are often inaccurate, and this is true for predictions ranging from weather to corporate earnings. Inputs from a large universe of sources mean that the number of variables tracked complicates calculations. Even with supercomputers, weather forecasts are often wrong.

The Carlson paper was cities again recently. Because the sticker shock about the number of deaths is so staggering, it will come up again

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