Hurricane Erin Forecast to Send Tropical Storm Force Winds to These Coastal Counties
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/07205220/Hurricane-Erin-Wind-Speed-Probabilities-150x150.pngAs Hurricane Erin’s course shifts closer to the Atlantic Coast, the National Weather Service is issuing a series of urgent rip tide warnings, beach hazard statements, and coastal flood warnings to dozens of beach communities.
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While Hurricane Erin may not make landfall on the contiguous U.S., the storm is likely to have strong impacts along the Atlantic coastline. The NWS has issued rip tide warnings in 41 counties, representing 21.0 million Americans. Meanwhile, there are high surf advisories in 64 counties, and coastal flood warnings in 11 countries. While the worst of the storm will occur near North Carolina, places as far north as Long Island have a chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. A closer look at the data reveals the counties where Hurricane Erin could deliver tropical storm force winds this week.
To determine the counties where Hurricane Erin could deliver tropical storm force winds this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed hurricane forecast data from the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Counties were ranked based on the average probability of experiencing tropical storm force winds – 39 miles per hour or greater – in the next 120 hours. Point-level data on wind speed probability were aggregated to the city level using zonal statistics in QGIS. Supplemental data on population and home value are from the U.S. Census Bureau.
25. Edgecombe, NC
Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 3.5%
No. hurricanes on record: 36 storms
Total home value: $1.8 billion
Total population: 48,777
County seat: Tarboro
24. Wayne, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 3.5%
- No. hurricanes on record: 41 storms
- Total home value: $5.4 billion
- Total population: 117,606
- County seat: Goldsboro
23. Suffolk, NY
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 3.6%
- No. hurricanes on record: 45 storms
- Total home value: $273.8 billion
- Total population: 1,525,680
- County seat: Riverhead
22. Bristol, MA
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 3.9%
- No. hurricanes on record: 32 storms
- Total home value: $67.9 billion
- Total population: 578,436
- County seat: Taunton
21. Bladen, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 4.0%
- No. hurricanes on record: 52 storms
- Total home value: $1.5 billion
- Total population: 29,591
- County seat: Elizabethtown
20. Duplin, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 4.5%
- No. hurricanes on record: 53 storms
- Total home value: $2.3 billion
- Total population: 49,053
- County seat: Kenansville
19. Pitt, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 4.8%
- No. hurricanes on record: 43 storms
- Total home value: $8.7 billion
- Total population: 172,279
- County seat: Greenville
18. Sussex, DE
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.0%
- No. hurricanes on record: 35 storms
- Total home value: $35.9 billion
- Total population: 247,799
- County seat: Georgetown
17. Virginia Beach, VA
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.0%
- No. hurricanes on record: 39 storms
- Total home value: $53.0 billion
- Total population: 457,066
- County seat: Virginia Beach
16. Gates, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.2%
- No. hurricanes on record: 35 storms
- Total home value: $816.6 million
- Total population: 10,437
- County seat: Gatesville
15. Bertie, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.3%
- No. hurricanes on record: 46 storms
- Total home value: $764.3 million
- Total population: 17,482
- County seat: Windsor
14. Pender, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.6%
- No. hurricanes on record: 64 storms
- Total home value: $7.3 billion
- Total population: 63,475
- County seat: Burgaw
13. Georgetown, SC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.8%
- No. hurricanes on record: 52 storms
- Total home value: $8.1 billion
- Total population: 64,200
- County seat: Georgetown
12. Jones, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 5.9%
- No. hurricanes on record: 61 storms
- Total home value: $461.2 million
- Total population: 9,245
- County seat: Trenton
11. Barnstable, MA
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 6.1%
- No. hurricanes on record: 25 storms
- Total home value: $57.7 billion
- Total population: 230,073
- County seat: Barnstable
10. Brunswick, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 6.6%
- No. hurricanes on record: 71 storms
- Total home value: $20.4 billion
- Total population: 145,889
- County seat: Bolivia
9. Chowan, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 6.7%
- No. hurricanes on record: 42 storms
- Total home value: $1.2 billion
- Total population: 13,814
- County seat: Edenton
8. Currituck, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 6.8%
- No. hurricanes on record: 55 storms
- Total home value: $3.7 billion
- Total population: 29,612
- County seat: Currituck
7. Onslow, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 6.9%
- No. hurricanes on record: 65 storms
- Total home value: $11.0 billion
- Total population: 208,537
- County seat: Jacksonville
6. Tyrrell, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 7.4%
- No. hurricanes on record: 58 storms
- Total home value: $210.2 million
- Total population: 3,376
- County seat: Columbia
5. Craven, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 7.4%
- No. hurricanes on record: 73 storms
- Total home value: $7.2 billion
- Total population: 101,074
- County seat: New Bern
4. Beaufort, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 11.4%
- No. hurricanes on record: 66 storms
- Total home value: $3.2 billion
- Total population: 44,597
- County seat: Washington
3. Carteret, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 17.6%
- No. hurricanes on record: 87 storms
- Total home value: $9.0 billion
- Total population: 68,652
- County seat: Beaufort
2. Hyde, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 18.1%
- No. hurricanes on record: 98 storms
- Total home value: $279.5 million
- Total population: 4,625
- County seat: Swan Quarter
1. Dare, NC
- Probability of 39+ mph winds in next 120 hours: 24.7%
- No. hurricanes on record: 96 storms
- Total home value: $6.1 billion
- Total population: 37,534
- County seat: Manteo