Property Values May Drop in These Wildfire-Prone California Cities

So far, 2026 is on track to become one of the worst wildfire seasons in the U.S. in recent memory. Wildfires have already burned nearly 3.2 million acres nationwide this year, well above the comparable year-to-date average of fewer than 2.1 million acres over the last decade. This year’s devastation has largely been fueled by above average temperatures and below-average precipitation – conditions that have made certain parts of the country especially vulnerable.

Currently, major wildfires are raging across over half a million acres, primarily in the Western United States. The largest of these fires are happening in Colorado, Nevada, and Utah. Historically, however, no state has been hit harder by wildfires than California. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, more than 2,800 fires have consumed a total of nearly 83,000 acres in California this year. 

While the worst wildfires of 2026 have so far been reported in other parts of the country, California will remain on high alert through the end of this year’s wildfire season. According to Wildfire Risk to Communities, a program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, the likelihood of wildfires in California is rated as “very high,” ranking in the 98th percentile of all states. The perennial risk is likely having an impact on the state’s economy and demography, as many are deciding to leave California, and property values in some of the most vulnerable cities are forecast to decline. 

Using data from Zillow and Wildfire Risk to Communities, Climate Crisis 247 identified the California cities with the highest wildfire risk where property values are expected to fall in the next year. We ranked all places in California on wildfire risk exposure relative to the U.S. as a whole, and identified the 10 highest-risk cities where property values are expected to decline by June 2027. These cities were then ranked on projected, relative change in home values over the next 12 months. Supplemental data on current median list prices are from Realtor.com.

10. San Diego, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -0.1% (-$929)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 25.9% (approx. 87,124 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (94th percentile in U.S.; 70th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $928,071
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $929,000

9. Los Angeles, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -0.3% (-$3,300)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 15.3% (approx. 137,125 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (96th percentile in U.S.; 79th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $1,096,650
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $1,099,950

8. Redding, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -2.2% (-$9,575)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 53.9% (approx. 20,668 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (96th percentile in U.S.; 78th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $425,673
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $435,248

7. San Jose, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -2.5% (-$34,625)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 24.0% (approx. 59,202 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (94th percentile in U.S.; 70th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $1,350,375
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $1,385,000

6. Sonora, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -3.0% (-$12,900)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 100.0% (approx. 2,629 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (96th percentile in U.S.; 77th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $417,099
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $429,999

5. Susanville, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -3.2% (-$9,520)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 100.0% (approx. 4,567 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (95th percentile in U.S.; 73rd percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $287,980
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $297,500

4. Truckee, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -3.5% (-$23,100)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 99.7% (approx. 13,038 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (96th percentile in U.S.; 78th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $636,900
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $660,000

3. Chico, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -4.0% (-$17,560)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 51.0% (approx. 16,716 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: High (90th percentile in U.S.; 59th percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $421,440
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $439,000

2. Clearlake, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -4.6% (-$16,957)
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 94.9% (approx. 8,673 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (99th percentile in U.S.; 92nd percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $351,668
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $368,625

1. Ukiah, California

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months in metro area: -7.4% (-$47,823) 
• Homes in city exposed to wildfire risk: 97.2% (approx. 5,847 homes)
• Wildfire likelihood in city: Very high (97th percentile in U.S.; 81st percentile in California)
• Projected median home list price in metro area, June 2027: $598,428
• Median home list price in metro area, June 2026: $646,250