Get Ready for Steep Increases in Grocery Prices, According to USDA

For the second time this decade, consumer prices are surging in the United States. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of goods and services rose 4.2% in May, year over year. The increase is the highest recorded since April 2023, when the inflation rate was falling from a historic high of 9.1% in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

While there is no single cause for the rapid cost of living increase, the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran is likely the leading culprit. Since the war began, the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel for approximately 20% of the world’s oil, has been effectively closed. The supply shock has been felt especially sharply at the pump, as gasoline prices rose by over 40% year-over-year in May. Now, ripple effects from rising transportation costs are emerging in other consumer sectors. 

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, the price of groceries is projected to rise by 3.2% in 2026 and potentially as high as 4.2% – well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate. Even with more than five months left in the year, millions of Americans are already feeling the pinch. A recent CNN poll, 61% of adults in the U.S. reported changing the groceries they bought in order to stay within budget. 

High fuel costs are not the only reason grocery prices are rising, as severe weather is also hampering global food production. Drought conditions in the Americas, for example, have harmed crop yields and contributed to supply shortages. Ultimately, widespread drought is expected to lead to higher prices for certain grocery store staples, including coffee and beef. 

Using data from the USDA, Climate Crisis 247 identified the grocery prices that are expected to rise the most this year. We ranked all major food categories on the expected price change in 2026. Supplemental data on the current price of specific food items is also from the USDA. Projected future prices for these items were calculated using USDA projections.

10. Poultry

• Projected price increase in 2026: +1.6% (as high as +4.0%)
• Average current price of chicken legs: $1.79 per pound
• Projected price of chicken legs by the end of 2026: $1.81 per pound (as high as $1.86 per pound)
• Average current price of boneless chicken breast: $4.17 per pound
• Projected price of boneless chicken breast by the end of 2026: $4.24 per pound (as high as $4.34 per pound)

9. Pork

• Projected price increase in 2026: +1.9% (as high as +4.9%)
• Average current price of bacon: $6.71 per pound
• Projected price of bacon by the end of 2026: $6.84 per pound (as high as $7.04 per pound)
• Average current price of boneless pork chops: $4.40 per pound
• Projected price of boneless pork chops by the end of 2026: $4.48 per pound (as high as $4.62 per pound)

8. Fresh fruits

• Projected price increase in 2026: +2.0% (as high as +4.4%)
• Average current price of strawberries: $2.60 per pound
• Projected price of strawberries by the end of 2026: $2.65 per pound (as high as $2.71 per pound)
• Average current price of bananas: $0.65 per pound
• Projected price of bananas by the end of 2026: $0.66 per pound (as high as $0.67 per pound)

7. Cereals and bakery products

• Projected price increase in 2026: +2.4% (as high as +4.0%)
• Average current price of whole wheat bread: $2.81 per pound
• Projected price of whole wheat bread by the end of 2026: $2.88 per pound (as high as $2.93 per pound)
• Average current price of chocolate chip cookies: $5.18 per pound
• Projected price of chocolate chip cookies by the end of 2026: $5.31 per pound (as high as $5.39 per pound)

6. Processed fruits and vegetables

• Projected price increase in 2026: +3.0% (as high as +4.8%)
• Average current price of canned corn: $1.32 per pound
• Projected price of canned corn by the end of 2026: $1.35 per pound (as high as $1.38 per pound)
• Average current price of frozen concentrate orange juice: $4.97 per 16 oz.
• Projected price of frozen concentrate orange juice by the end of 2026: $5.12 per 16 oz.  (as high as $5.21 per 16 oz.)

5. Fish and seafood

• Projected price increase in 2026: +5.6% (as high as +7.5%)
• Average current price of fish: N/A
• Projected price of fish by the end of 2026: N/A
• Average current price of seafood: N/A
• Projected price of seafood by the end of 2026: N/A

4. Nonalcoholic beverages

• Projected price increase in 2026: +5.7% (as high as +7.5%)
• Average current price of soda: $2.20 per 2 liters
• Projected price of soda by the end of 2026: $2.32 per 2 liters (as high as $2.36 per 2 liters)
• Average current price of whole milk: $4.22 per gallon
• Projected price of whole milk by the end of 2026: $4.46 per gallon (as high as $4.53 per gallon)

3. Sugar and sweets

• Projected price increase in 2026: +6.9% (as high as +8.7%)
• Average current price of sugar: $1.03 per pound
• Projected price of sugar by the end of 2026: $1.11 per pound (as high as $1.12 per pound)
• Average current price of ice cream: $6.05 per half gallon
• Projected price of ice cream by the end of 2026: $6.46 per half gallon (as high as $6.57 per half gallon)

2. Beef and veal

• Projected price increase in 2026: +7.5% (as high as +12.2%)
• Average current price of ground beef: $14.27 per pound
• Projected price of ground beef by the end of 2026: $15.34 per pound (as high as $16.02 per pound)
• Average current price of usda choice sirloin steak: $14.27 per pound
• Projected price of usda choice sirloin steak by the end of 2026: $15.34 per pound (as high as $16.02 per pound)

1. Fresh vegetables

• Projected price increase in 2026: +7.7% (as high as +11.1%)
• Average current price of tomatoes: $2.49 per pound
• Projected price of tomatoes by the end of 2026: $2.68 per pound (as high as $2.77 per pound)
• Average current price of iceberg lettuce: $1.96 per pound
• Projected price of iceberg lettuce by the end of 2026: $2.12 per pound (as high as $2.18 per pound)